Independent Dude

Advice for Imam Feisal Abdul Rauf

2010-08-22T11:53:00.000-07:00

I'll publish my bias first--I was at first upset and moderately opposed to the mosque but as I learn more--I'm more and more in favour of it. There is a caveat though.

If no one from the Cordoba project clarifies some points, then I think the mosque should be moved a greater distance from Ground Zero. The issue is beyond white hot right now and the centre is in danger of becoming the opposite of its intent--a lightning rod causing an irreparable breach between Muslims and the rest of America.

That being said--I think the mosque could and should remain there--if there is kind of a PR initiative on behalf of the project. If it is handled correctly--it could become a 'teachable moment' aiding world peace.

The imam, by most accounts, notwithstanding some soundbytes amplified ad nauseum by Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin and the like, is a bridge builder between the ultra conservatives overseas and his own more moderate brand of Islam. The man is a Sufi, sometimes dubbed the 'flower children' of Islam, and he is often scorned overseas for his liberal views and ties to the West. And this is precisely why he needs to give voice to the opinions of more conservative Muslims if he is to remain a bridgebuilder. He is a man performing a balancing act, and this gives rise to the soundbytes so often quoted by the far right.

And the US certainly does need and want a bridgebuilder. One of Al Qaeda's aims was to create a war between Islam and the West. This imam is one of the few allies the US has in trying to stop this.

The imam needs to cut short his trip overseas where he is reaching out to Muslims (with the support of the US State Department) and come back to America and explain some of these things.

Maybe he could go on Meet the Press or This Week. Maybe he could provide context to some of his comments. Maybe he could explain why the project has not released the list of its fundraisers. (e.g. fundraisers of any inititative with this much heat are reluctant to provide thir names) Maybe he could explain why he wants to put the mosque right there (e.g. the importance of demonstrating that Islam is not Al Qaeda).

This last point could be underscored if the project dedicated one of its 15 floors to a 9/11 memorial to remind Muslims (and evryone else) of the importance of renouncing and denouncing violence of all kinds regardless of their religion or politics.

Saying nothing just feeds into the narrative of a radical imam, funded by fundamentalist Saudis, building a mosque at the centre of America's deepest wound as some kind of celebration of the 9/11 hijackers.

The Cordoba initiative either has major PR work to do or it should move the project. I hope its the former.

How Obama should sell health-care law

2010-03-25T13:01:00.000-07:00

Focus on cost-containment.

This will help win independents and republicans with a 'lower case 'r'" who are so crucial to a lot of the blue-dog converts who helped pass the bill in the House.

Specifically:

mention the CBO numbers whenever possible. If Republicans want to refute this they have to go into terms like 'the doc fix' and 'double counting of savings from Medicare reimbursement....' and by then everyone's eyes have glazed over anyway.
explain how the law is a platform for further cost reductions--by getting everyone into the cost pool--you spread the risk and can therefore make common-sense changes as to how people are covered and which reduce costs in the long run
costs won't go down overnight, but changing the structure is the first step in confronting the country's single biggest fiscal challenge
point out common sense reforms like rewarding doctors more for outcomes rather than per test--more of America paying for what it needs rather than throwing money at the problem
mention a greater focus on prevevtative care--and how keeping Americans healthy before they get sick is the single most effective driver of reducing costs
point out the large number of small pilot programs that have reduced costs in some hospitals that might save the country money
and point out that little if any of these points is captured in the CBO study (which says the new law will save the country money anyway)

Mid-east: DOOOOOO IT!

2009-06-05T10:17:00.001-07:00

My perma-bear thoughts on the economy seem to have been stymied by the US printing presses--so I turn to another thing I think has huge implications for the world. Namely the Israel-Palestinian issue.

Obama's speech left many of us in awe--but it's a familiar feeling. We have seen this since Iowa and really since Obama's debut in 2004. He's masterful--but aside from nuance and atmosphhherics he's not saying much different from Dubya. His words need to be followed by action---and in the next few weeks.

Specifically--getting Bibi to agree to a settler freeze is first. Have him allude to the two-state solution IF there is normalization of ties with the Arab states. An explicit recognitition of Israel's (even with Hamas) right to exist might only happen at the end.

Negotiations with Syria might lead to something in the Golan heights if Hezbollah is empowered. This might lead to a virtuous circle of concessions and more security elsewhere.

Take from Ramos' book--'The Age of the Unthinkable'. Strange bedfellows can emerge but empowering others breeds success in today's world. Also, focusing on indirect control and not on the levers that have been pushed 1000 times (and failed 1000 times)

These steps will require incredible pressure on Bibi and the Jewish lobby. A few carrots Obama has are his incredible popularity now, his promise to not let Iran get a nuclear weapon, and the demographic necessity to get it done now lest it turn into an apartheid situation.

The time to spend his political capital is now.

U.S. debt big picture

2009-05-29T10:08:00.000-07:00

More than six months after the crash, I remain incredibly bearish. The major reason for this is US debt levels, in their various forms.

As best I can gather, this is roughly a 100 trillion dollar problem (I like working in round numbers). Federal debt is 11 trillion. Household debt is 13 trillion. Corporate debt is 12 T. Financial debt is 17 T. Social security deficit is 9 T. Medicare is 32 T.

The last number is huge and things really hit the fan in eight years or so. Hence Obama's push to get health care costs down. Let's pretend the entitlements problem is solved by some means of collective sacrifice.

The number that really concerns me is household debt. At 130% of income it needs to get back to like half this. Hence, de-leveraging is going to be a major drag on what drives 70% of the economy. This won't be a couple of years either.

Can anyone tell me how we let it get this far?

Advice for Chrysler's union

2009-04-21T00:02:00.000-07:00

Accept a 40% pay cut. Demand a 40% pay cut of the management team. Demand humongous profit-sharing incentives. Demand union involvement in day to day cost control.

This worked for Ricardo Semler's company Semco in the 1990's. The construction manufacturer rode out Brazil's inflation and continued to make revolutionary changes in its business model. Today it is one of Brazil's mot profitable companies. Semler can not now say how many people he employs or exactly what kind of company Semco is.

The commerce grad in me is left shaking his head.

The Semco story is told in Joshua Cooper Ramo's new book 'The Age of the Unthinkable' The ideas in it are kind of--profound--for lack of a better word. I need to let them be digested. But the last sentence of the book asks, "What does this revolution ask of me?" I've decided that I should blog more about this topic.

But first-----Viking Wars!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Budget ideas

2009-02-21T18:28:00.000-08:00

Obama needs to moderately (say 4% across the board) This will not do muuch but should be passable given the crisis..

The heavylifts need to come from defence and entitlements. Only defence can be dealt with now.

Defence needs a reorientation. The crisis means that the US can no longer be the world's police and its footprint needs to be halved. As a foreign policy hawk I would like a base in Afghanistan, Iraq, Georgia, Kenya, and the Phillipines please. Close the rest and bring all the troops home from Germany and Japan.

Reduce the size of the navy. The US will have less need to project its power.

Pull out of NATO and the UN. The world needs a new league of liberal democracies. Parter with Russia, Iran, China, DPRK on ad hoc basis. Israel should not be in until a 2 state solution is agreed to. The more liberal and fair and the less corruption these countriesx have the more power they get. Keep Britain, UK and France wi th veto power.

The IMF, World Bank and G20 should remain leaders for economic growth and should remain stable. The world needs to be united and cannot withdraw!

The Soviets will really not like the Georgia base so give up the missile shield. It doesn't work anyway. Stop or curtail new weapons development.

Re-structure bases and military organization and procurement so that it is leaner and adaptable to changing world. Commit to strong force but a different one.

Obama needs to bring it on Tuesday night

2009-02-20T20:36:00.000-08:00

Obama needs to give the speech of his life on Tuesday night.

This is saying alot given his debut in Boston four years ago. IMHO, the only Obama speeches approaching this were the victory speech in Iowa and the "race" speech in Philadelphia. His inaugural address was kind of a let down. (In fact, I am hoping he knew he had to "keep his powder dry" until he really needed to rouse the nation--that moment is now)

He needs to reach for the rhetorical heights when he addresses a joiint session of Congress Tuesday. Lots of "This is AMERICA!" and stern looks, and Ra-ra Red, White and Blue and "We can do it if we are, once again, the UNITED States of America!" and reminiscing about the Marshall Plan and the moon landing and standing up to communism etc. Eventhe Pubbies will have to get up and cheer.

He needs to finish on this of course, and start off with a description of he dire circumstances and the need for tough choices. Few specifics but an explicit apeal to the politicians in the room to be strong in the next few months for the good of the country. The country needs tough love right now and changes need to be dealt with with maturity.

The US needs a lift right now for a few reasons. The economic news is so bleak that Americans are wondering if their country will ever be the same again. It's sapping consumer confidence which is still needed for economic growth. And most of all--cause the really heavy lifting is just now beginning. Passing tax cuts and new spending was easy (BTW I think the stumulus wa s wrong headed and won't work and they should've saved their money--the best part of it may be that it might've sated Pelosi's appetite) The real heavy lifts--for a while--are housing, banking, and the auto sector--all of which I'll detail later. (Tomorrow, I'll write about budget ideas)

Obama needs to be more like Bill Clinton was today when he said, "Those who want to bet against America need to remember-that hasn't worked out so well over the past 230 years" Obama is not only the leader of the country who has to be sombre and judicious and bi-partisan. He also needs to make tough calls and piss people off for the long-term good of the nation. He also needs to be hopeful, confident and optimisic.

A least one person in the U.S. needs to be. Tuesday means a lot.

My Obamafication

2009-02-19T19:18:00.000-08:00

OK --the Ottawa trip sealed it--I'm now an Obamatron.

Actually, last week's press conference was a clincher too. The way he moved effortlessly from foreign crises to domestic ones, sounding like he had a detailed grasp of each issue. And his political handling of difficult issues just left me in awe.

I guess I always saw his potential--but just didn't think he could realize it--this early.

Now I'm a true beleiver.

I guess also that blogging for Hillary (partly for McCain but mostly for her) made me want to destroy Obama for most of 2008--old habits die hard.

Now I've reached the point where I'm going to work for Obama's re-election no matter what. (Even if McCain runs again in 2012--something I don't think is unfathomable.)

This is a big step for me.

Hence, I've changed the description of my blog and will be dispensing only policy and political advice for Barack Obama. I'll try to post every day. I'll start tomorrow with 'How to Fix the Economy in 3 easy steps.'

Two mega-priorities for Obama and ten "pressure-points"

2009-01-19T13:24:00.000-08:00

Saving America and the world requires two mega-priorities be handled first. After that ten different "pressure points" need to be pressed simultaneously.

MEGA PRIORITY #1--ENTITLEMENT REFORM--Outlays for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid make up more than half of federal spending. With more baby boomers entering retirement--this situation will only get worse. Putting the US on sound financial footing is very difficult and politically costly and that's why it needs to be done right away because he will never have as much political capital as he does now.

MEGA-PRIORITY #2--TWO-STATE SOLUTION IN MIDDLE EAST--The major structural problem internationally is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The longer he waits the longer he is complicit in accepting the status quo. And the settlements on the West Bank are reaching the point of no return. If they are not dramatically scaled back/abandoned soon there will never be a settlement and the only outcome will be apartheid by the Jewish people of a majority Palestinian population.

The window is quickly closing on these two crises powered by demographics. The obstacles are enormous, but they can only be overcome by a first term president at the height of his power with the mandate of the public to make change. The moment is now and Obama has to move with fierce urgency. My tongue is forever in my cheek.

Two carrots can also be used to get the kind of concessions needed. Seniors and the left will be more willing to accept change to entitlement programs if there is health care reform promised. And the Israelis will be more willing to remove settlers if they know we are going to deal with the Iranians one way or the other.

Resolving these problems will pay gi-normous dividends. But there is still a laundry list of things to do.

Traditional prioritizing won't work because there are too many critical things which can't be delayed. Instead, see the domestic and international problems as concentric circles which overlap. Focus on the pressure points simultaneously. Hopefully the budding solutions will mutually reinforce each other.

Five domestic pressure points

#1 Efficiency in healthcare--putting records online and concentrating on prevention and sharing best practices will reduce costs.

#2 Education reform--Merit pay and sharing best practices will help US competitiveness' in training for math and science.

#3 Energy efficiency--Green focus helps with world relations-we need a revolution in science and math education-----green homes, schools, businesses, schools, hospitals is by definition a two-fer---the economic answer is America leading the world in sustainable living breakthroughs

#4 Regulatory reform--necessary to avoid repeat of financial mess

#5 Budgetary efficiency--Doing a better job with less is Obama's job. Cuts at Defence and efficiencies at Homeland Security are neede because they are the bigggest outlays outside entitlements. However, keeping America safe has to be his priority above all others, even the economy--as existential as that is. But find efficiencies while you do it.

Five international pressure points

#1 World trade--Keep global system going while trade balances and capital flows move to equilibrium. Meeting Canada, Mexico early and phoning top ten trading partners and reiterating commitment to economic and financial stability would be reassuring on first day.

#2 Russia, India, China--US needs help from the heavy lifters to solve world's problems. Russia is especially critical because of it weapons, its fragile economy, its place on the Security Council, its geography spanning 1/3 of the planet, its natural resources, and its potential to help with Israel and Iran. Potential carrots include missile shield questions and our involvement in its former satellite states.

India is integral to the economy as well as Pakistan and by extension Afghanistan.

China is critical to the economy and in continuing to fund American debt until the trade deficit can rebalance some. It is also necessary for dealing with Iran and also Sudan because of the oil it imports.

#3 Champion human rights while staying on offense against terror--On the first day at least move in the direction of withdrawal from Iraq and closing Guantanamo Bay. Increase troop levels in Afghanistan and offer to negotiate with moderate Taliban.

# 4 Iran--Stopping their nuclearization is critical and this must be done in conjunction with the two state solution. It is an existential threat to Israel and playing super hard-ball with the Iranians will win you concessions on the settler front.

#5 African development--Build on progress of Bush AIDS policy, Jeffrey Sachs efforts and work of Bill Gates in championing "creative capitalism". Differ- from Bush that freedom and democracy will end tyranny. Voting is important, but without rule of law and other institutions of liberal democracy it can lead to the situation now in the Congo.

Predictions

2008-11-09T23:12:00.000-08:00

Treasury--the 82 year old Reserve chair under Reagan--he's blunt--we need that--will stay on one year only
Economic counsel posts for Sumers, Rubin, Geichner
State--Richardson--anyone but Kerry--please!
Defense--will keep Gates--and offer a mea culpa on the surge--to stay on one year only--replaced by Liebermann
Attorney General--Claire McCaskill
Homeland Security--Rudy G
UN--Kerry
Global warming envoy--Gore
Mid-east envoy--Bubba
Supreme Court Nominees--HRC, Valerie Jarrett

Thoughts on Rahmbo

2008-11-09T22:52:00.000-08:00

I like him--SURPRISE!!!

First he is a good pick for BO. He is aggressive, has sharp elbows and is really results oriented. This is the perfect counter-weight to Obama's mild mannered, 'let's hear from everyone', 'Obambi'-like persona that might get him in trouble. He is ultra-partisan but frankly I don't care at this point. He is tough, competent, and politically astute and will help Obama be more effective. Everyone should want that given the problems we're in.

Secondly, he is a moderate realist who is kind of hawkish. His appointment kind of put Nancy Pelosi in her place--with Emmanuel BO's got his very own congressional power broker. It's a signal that Obama is going to do his own thing and not be held captive by the Dem leadership.

Thirdly, Rahm is kind of blunt and swears a lot. Remind you of anyone?

Thoughts on Obama

2008-11-09T22:34:00.000-08:00

What kind of president will Barack Obama be?

If you look at his record he is really liberal. But he ran to the center after the election.

I think he will be much more moderate than his record would indicate. After reading 'Audacity of hope' I found myself agreeing with alot of his policies. My gut tells me that the guy really wants to listen to all sides, and that he may be willing to suffer to a degree to try to please everyone. Eventually a decision has to be made though.

Moreover, I think his passt ultra liberalism was dictated by the circumstances at the time. He represented South Side of Chicago in the Illinois legislature, and it is hard to find more liberal constituents. In the US Senate, he was likely preoccupied with the presidential run and trying to beat a seemingly unstoppable HRC. To do that he had to go as far to the left as he could.

Rep. Nadler (D) says Obama lacked political courage to leave Wright's church

2008-11-03T19:43:00.000-08:00

At a synagogue over the weekend, Democratic congressman Nadler from Florida said that the reason Barack Obama did not leave Reverend Wright's church earlier than he did was because he lacked poolitical courage. Nadler was referring to Obama's decision to remain in Rev. Wright's church for over 16 years and listen to more than 380 sermons.

Wright famously said "God DAMN America!"; seemingly blamed US policies for bringing about 9/11 FIVE DAYS AFTER the attacks; and blamed the US government for creating AIDS so it could kill black people.

Obama is widely seen as having benefitted politically from Wright early on. He enlisted Wright on his campaign. He didn't invite Wright to his campaign launch on February 16, 2007, because, as Obama explained, "Your sermons can get a little harsh" He prayed privately with him before hand though.

BO cut Wright loose from his campaign when word started to leak that Wright was radical. When video surfaced of Wright's rants---BO at first defended his pastor by saying on March 18, 2008, "I can no more disown him than I can my own family....These people are part of me"

But then when Wright personally attacked him--he dissociated himself from Wright--less than a month after saying he could never do so.

Hit Obama with offering conciliation before race is over

2008-11-03T17:48:00.000-08:00

Today BO said--"I want to congratulate the Senator for running a fine campaign" While I'm sure the Senator will eventually thank BO for the sentiments and eventually return the compliment--right now I have two words for him---NOT YET!

Offer condolences to grandma but say "no thanks" to BO's congratulations on running a fine campaign

2008-11-03T16:07:00.000-08:00

I would start the stump speech by offering a serious word of condolence to Obama for his grandmother passing away. "At a time like this, it is fitting to remember that politics should never come before people. It is people after all, that we're fighting for."

When you get to the part about Obama measuring the drapes mention that you acknowledge Senator Obama's offer of congratulations for running a fine campaign. And while you will accept the compliment at some point and problably offer your own thanks to him--you have just two words for him:

NOT YET!

This can be the rallying cry for McCain voters over the next 24 hours. Captures the campaign's arrogance and dovetails with a thought I think many soft BO supporters have. They like him but he is young-he should be president someday.

10 reasons for McCain's supporters to be optimistic

2008-11-03T13:50:00.000-08:00

1. There are still a great many questions about who Barack Obama is and he has shown that he is not a good closer
2. There has been tremendous momentum for McCain in the past few days--Obama peaked way to early
3. The fact that Obama wants to aise taxes in a recession has taken hold
4. The fact that Obama wants to" spread the wealth" and thinks earning income is "selfish" has taken hold
5. Revernd Wright commercials aired heavily at the tail end of the campaign
6. Americains will be reluctant to give the White House to a Democrat when they already dominate congress.
7. Obamas rabid youth supporters will not show up like they did in Iowa--the war and his ultra-liberal policies drove them--now that the surge has nearly won Iraq and he has tried to move to the center on many issues--they will mostly vote like they always have
8. Obama's support above 45% is very soft--now that the economy has moderated they will not turnout in the numbers they need
9. Voters will be cheesed off at the coronation the media has tried to push through--they want their vote counted
10. The "sad Grandpa effect"--everyone knows it's McCain's turn and BO has not earned it--the "fierce urgeny of now" will receive it's ultimate repudiation--they will tell Obama--NOT YET!

Vote McCain to stop one party rule in DC! Vote for a war hero who loves America. Say yes to growth and no to higher taxes and "spreading the wealth"

Get Romney to Nevada, Colorado

2008-11-03T08:31:00.000-08:00

Have him use his mormon connections to help get out the vote in Nevada and Colorado

NYT covering for Obama in aunt case?

2008-11-02T15:01:00.000-08:00

Thye Times has a story today that seems to indicate Obama's aunt actually
returned to Kenya after coming here to visit Obama in 1999.

This would largely kill the story because it wouldn't be Obama's fault that his aunt got back in to the country without Obama's help.

"At the time of the ceremony [in 2005], Ms. Onyango and another relative said in interviews that they had flown to the United States from Kenya to witness the event."

The problem is that there is no link to these alleged interviews. The sen- tence is worded in such a way that it may be referring to interviews in 2008, it is not clear who the interviewer was, it is not clear who the interviewee was [Aunt Z or the other "relative"] and that it was Aunt Z who was motivated to cone here for the swearing-in.

The NYT can clear up this confusion by either linking to the interviews or releasing the transcripts.

I am doubtful they will do this because I doubt they interviewed Aunt Z in 2004-5.

After all, no one knew who she was before the London Times broke the story a few days ago.

Talking point for Stevens guilty verdict

2008-10-27T13:31:00.000-07:00

-verdict guarantees the Dems pick up another Senate seat--which moves them closer to the 60 neeeded for a filibuster proof majority
-verdict a reminder tha power breeds corruption--need for reform in Washington
-verdict a reminder of how corrupt some in Alaska are--Palin built her career around taking on issues like this
-verdict a reminder that money breeds corruption--McCain championed campaign finance reform to combat this---but it appears to be mmaking a comeback with BO's massive amounts of spending--his haul this year is as big as Diet Coke--McCain--who kept his promise and stayed in the public finance system--is a David up against a Goliath
-verdict a reminder that corruption can lurk where there's a lot of pork--this was the author of 'The Bridge to Nowhere'

Clinton-Franken ad

2008-10-27T11:05:00.000-07:00

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXrBQrdcwto

Hillary is telling McCain what to do. By stumping for Al Franken to make the 60 votes necessary for a Democratic supermajority--she is making the case for how liberal a REPO ticket (Reid-Pelosi-Obama) would be.

The final "No surrender tour"

2008-10-26T21:23:00.000-07:00

My last week advice for McCain is to mount a final "No surrender" tour which hits on McCain's fighting spirit--and refusing to give up despite the media trying to corronate Obama who clearly peaked too early and is just coasting (like he did with HRC).

The main message should be totally positive and focus on the heart of the economic crisis (which is also the heart of what derailed the campaign) The Mortgage Resurgance Program would directly deal with the problem by putting a floor under house prices. Conservatives shouldn't be too concerned about the $300B price tag cause it could (and should) be part of the $700B bailout.

BTW this is doubly important b/c concentrating on the core issue reminds Pubbies that is what sank the campaign. Maybe they'll stop pointing fingers and save the post-mortems for after Nov 4.

The primary negative attack should be a warning of the REPO ticket (Reid-Pelosi-Obama). Democratic hegemony with supermajorities in Congress would be devastating for our already teetering economy. The REPO ticket would bring unchecked tax n' spend policies at a time when the future is more uncertain than ever.

The 'elitism' charge based on the 'cling' comments should be the number two negative attack. Obama's fundraising broken promise and the role of ACORN are especislly relevant given the enormity of the Obama juggernaut.

The good Reverend is a potential negative attacks because it is very difficult for Obama to defend. Rezko, Ayers and any other character attacks should be dropped IMHO.

Talking about Biden and foreign policy and anything else should be dropped too. Except maybe one line about McCain not "needing testing" or "inviting a crisis"

Palin can do more of the negative attacks. She can also talk about energy (drill baby-red meat) being an advocate for women (softens image) and the mortgage resurgance thing. Send her to all the close red states and Penn/upper midwest.

McCain can talk about mortgages and the risk of the REPO ticket. Being in Congress for 25 years he knows how the executive branch and the two legislative branches inter-relate. Start the "no Surrender" tour in NH (natch) and also send him to northern VA, FL, OH and PA.

BTW all these are not new policies but they just need to be comunicated in a really (really) focused way.

Go McCain!!!

Thoughts on McCain volunteer attacked in Pittsburgh

2008-10-23T20:45:00.000-07:00

The AP is reporting that Ashley Todd-a McCain volunteer- was beaten and mutilated after her assailant robbed her but then saw a McCain sticker on the back of her car. The man punched her and carved the letter 'B; into her face.
The attack happened Wednesday night and the version of her story has not been verified by police. They are apparently looking at surveillance video.

I've seen the picture of her and I fear this issue could be inflammatory.

The Obama campaign put out a short statement. The other side called the victim.

I think it behooves both sides to play down the racial tensions and stress that the attacker was not in any way part of the Obama campaign.

Great post-debate analysis on Charlie Rose

2008-10-15T22:13:00.000-07:00

McCain will have to make a fundamental decision soon regarding the campaign. He either goes extremely negative re: Wright et al or tries to rise above it. I hope he does the latter. Either way it doesn't look good.

McCain has the unique chance to try to rally the country behind him in saying that he has faced tough times before and knows how to get through them. He knows what it's like to have hope in the darkest places. How to rely on what matters most when all else sems lost. etc.

Let him show his authenticity.

One thing McCain has that Obama can't match is a fighting spirit that will reform what's wrong in the country. Obama has the calm thing down bu the flipside of it is tha he can seem detatched. McCain feeling America's pain and being a conduit for that emotion goes well withthefighting image.

One asset that was not used was how Americans should fear an Obama pesidency with democratic supermajorities in the House and Senate.

One of my favorite parts of the last few weeks (months?) was when McCain shot down some in the base who tried to raise fears of an Obama presidency. There is a strong chance this guy is going to be the next President and he shouldn't be tarred with lies and half-truths just for political expediency. That's not worthy of John McCain. It behooves both McCain and Palin to addparts to their stump speeches where they call onn people to disagree without being disagreeable.

Go 100% on bi-partisanship (or like 80%)

2008-10-07T20:01:00.000-07:00

Boy that debate was painful to watch.

The second woman almost cried about the economy and the response was partisan sniping. Obama's respoonse was all about Bush. McCain could have turned this around if he had responded about how weneed to look forward not back and go big on reaching accross the aisle which McCain knows how to do. Instead he ranted about Obama's liberalism and other Rovian talking points.

Ditch Ayers and Wright and talking about such stuff. Ditch most of the base talk-tired old politics too. Let Palin handle it.

Talk incessantly about reform and bi-partisanship and finding solutions. Sound open to what the dems are proposing. Whatever it takes to put country first. The stakes are too high. It doesn't matter who wins. Go big on socializing housing like the maverick you are.

The elephant is dead. Get off it and sprint to the finish.

Any Obama criticism that you're pulling a gimmick won't fly when the country wants results.

Remind us all of the reasons wwewere proud to support you.

McCain/Palin needs to communicate on three levels

2008-10-05T23:58:00.000-07:00

Superficial/swiftboat like/negative level that destroys people and often wins elections----William Ayers is relevant because it speaks about character--it is only relevant because Ayers was unrepentant as recently as 2001--McCain beleives in redemption and would forgive him if he sought it
Realistic left/right politics--OBAMA WANTS TO RAISE TAXES ON 80% OF THE TAX BASE--forget they're only 10% of the electorate--they're the lion's share of the economy---combined with a $1 trillion in new spending and socializing healthcare---it will bankrupt our already teetering economy.
New paradigm patriotic indepoendence--going beyond bi-partisanship and leading the country to solutions even though it may require sacrifice. The only things sacrosanct in spending are those things that keep America secure and competetive. JM will be ruthless with other spending and even social security/medicaid/medicare/ and veterans affars. Country first.

Go heavy on #2 but also #3.

'Looking backwards' charge is particularly sore point for Obama

2008-10-04T23:28:00.000-07:00

It was telegraphed by Claire McCaskill when she raised the point unprompted and talked about how it was essential to look back to see what McCain's future would look like That's spun only a bit better than Biden's 'Past is prologue' which admittedly does sew up the english college professor vote.

I would say McCain should bring up this angle at every opportunity whenever the Bush record is mentioned. Obama will sound like a broken record.

Americans care about future plans not past records. This applies to victory in Iraq, applying the surge lessons to Afghanistan, employing a 'do-it-all' strategy to be enrgy independence, and not employing a liberal tax and spend policy which would kill our economy.

Particularly on the economy, McCain sounded the warning in 2005 about Fannie an Freddie and the Dems blocked any reforms. Even Saturday Night Live seems to agree.

Voters are looking forward at the immense chalenges and asking who can solve them while helping America regain its reputatiiiion. McCain's environmental stance and his assertive leadership will help America re-take its place in the community of nations.

'Roll of the dice' would launch referendum on Obama

2008-10-03T22:11:00.000-07:00

I would put together a TV spot outlining how Obama is untested, unready and unsafe.

his plan to raise taxes would kill the economy in a fragile time
his plan to spend a trillion new dollars and socialize healthcare would do the same
his comments on US soldiers arrating villages disqualifies him for commander in chief
his plan to negotiate with holocaust deniers without preconditions is naiive--as Hillary Clinton said

End with Bill Clinton's soundbyte, 'I just don't think the American people are ready to roll the dice' played on Charlie Rose last December.

***********************************************

Sarah Palin's performance last night puts to rest all questions about her experience and allows McCain to shine a light on Obama's lack thereof. I don't care what George Will and Charles Krauthammer say.

It's all about him now and that's not good for the Dems.

Hitting him very hard now with the ad and in Tuesday's debate is important because it builds on Sarah's momentum and will keep the question marks above Obama.

Independent groups will fill in the blanks about his character.

Post-debate thoughts

2008-10-02T21:31:00.000-07:00

Sarah Palin's standard stump speech should be 50% on Obama's riskiness-25% on McCain/Palin as fighters who will put Wash. back on the little guy's side--25% on how McCain/Palin will be different than Bush (energy independence)

Obama's riskiness (50%)
1 raising taxes in a recession
2 spending a trillion ne dollars including socialized medicine
3 negotiating with holocaust deniers without pre-conditions (naive and dangerous)

McCain/Palin are mavericks who fight for joe average (25%)
-include boxing imagery as well as their record of bi-partisanship
-end speech with deveral lines about "Join us! fight for lower taxes! Fight for energy independence! Fight for change in Washington! Fight with us!"

McCain/Palin will offer real change (25%)
-energy independence will happen by doing it all (incl. clean coal and nuclear)
-Pickens' plan makes most sense by using wind and compressed natural gas to power cars
-use all domestic resources we've got (drill baby)
-invest in r&d and k-12--but let market determine winners
*****************************************************************
Other thoughts are that at least two Sunday show should be done. I reccommend Chris Wallace ten Face the Nation.

She should do a blitz of local TV stations and morning shows (by satellite if poss.) and the conservative talk shows.

I m still a proponent of prepping her non-stop. What if she had been pressed on health care or the role of the vp under the constitution.?

Last minute advice for Palin

2008-10-02T14:46:00.000-07:00

Half the debate will be about the economy/bailout:

take a lot of time to calmly explain the situation--a detailed answer on how the problem started with Fannie & Freddie and the housing market, the push to extend credit regardless of credit worthiness, corruption and greed on Wall Street/Washington, over-securitization of markets, lack of transparency in financial markets and the failure of regulators, credit rating agencies, and others to curb the greed.
bring up Raines, Johnson, and Dodd and Obama's ties to F&F---but when pushed, admit it is a bi-partisan problem and havve an answer for Rick Davis counterpunch
bring up that McCain called for reforms a couple years ago but be prepared to defend his lack of regulatory history--concentrate on his call for transparency in markets--salute SEC's promise to look at curbing mark to market accounting--derivitives must have greater disclosure and there must be a way to communicate the rtsks associated with an investment.
cite today's ISM ikndex down 13% from August as a signal the crisis may soon hit main street--the number may be exaggerated because of the hurricanes and a strike at Boeing. However, tough to swallow sas it is, the bailout has got to pass. Encourage the House to do so.
credit McCain with going back tothe Hill and getting a better bill for taxpayers--this is while Obama said-"If you need me, call me"
this package is only step 1--step 2 is the "home-priceA" firewall advocated by Martin Feldstein. It goes to the root of the problem when the bailout (which is primarily a confidence builder) does not. He proposes swaping 1/5 of mortgage debt with lower interest government debt. The new debt would be full recourse ( while regular mortgage debt is not) so people with negative equity would be less likely to foreclose. It would stop the downward pressure on home prices and save homeowners significant interest payments. There would likely be asmall cost but not a huge one as it is an asset swap
step 3 is that any future government intervention shoulfd be in the form of buyingg preferred shares in the companies-- offers security,stabilityand participation in the upside Exactly what Warren Buffettdid with GS. Make it an investment, not a bailout.
step 4 is effective regulation--not necessarily more--starting with Fannie & Freddie--where the pronlem started and which Mc Cain called for two years. They are HEAVILY regulated already so the key is not to add more red tape but make the red tape work
step 5 is not to raise taxes--this will kill theeconomy
practice her on second and thirdc answers when pressed--she has to learn nuance. "We shouldn't second guess Israel but we shold never let it get to that point, It's why sanctions and working with our allies is so important. Of course we'd maintain a dialogue with Israel and communicate our concerns to them."
prep her on abortion--Biden knows the subject backwars and forwards--its a key reason he was chosen. Differentiate her position on rape and stem cells from McCain" He doesn't reqire you to check your opinions at the door" is a winning line.
on energy focus on maximizing domestic resources (40 B pipeline) and doing it all--inluding clean coal, nuclear, solar, wind and new tech

You have two hours--good luck!

Country First

2008-09-24T23:15:00.000-07:00

If missing the debate causes McCain to lose the election---so be it. The maverick always puts the well-being of his country first.

This is exactly what happened with the surge which he led on while others said it would fail. At great political cost to himself--McCain did what he beleived was right for America. It has turned the nightmare of Iraq into a stable country where victory is now within our grasp.

He is exhibiting true leadership which will become clearer with each passing day.'

*****************

On a side note---Kudos to Ari Fleischer on a great performance on 'Race for the WH' Wow! Get him on the payroll!

Bill Gross' game changer

2008-09-24T09:32:00.000-07:00

For Pete's sake read Bill Gross' article in the Waswhington Post and get McCain behind this plan. The first one to show leadership on this wins.

He estimates the assets will transfer at 65 cents on the dollar. Wall Street takes 35% of the loss. He estimates a 10-15% yield on the assets. This is not a bailout it's an investment.

Even if his estimsates are a bit rosy it's not a bad cost for saving the world.

Beginning to warm to Kudlow's call for a clean bill. Stand firm on oversight though.

Have McCain give 'conditional' support to bill

2008-09-23T20:56:00.000-07:00

Conditional based on the five improvements McCain has offered. IMHO, the conditions be ranked as follows (1 being the most importrant)

1 accountability and oversight
2 way for taxpayers to recoup losses
3 limits on employee pay
4 no earmarks
5 crafted in the open

Frankly I don't car5e about 4 and 5. Number three is not too important but the dems might insist. Number two would be nice and it makes sense anyway--but it pales in comparison to #1. McCain's idea about the panel of Buffett and Romney and chaired by Bloomberg is great.

If Obama stalls on the principle of helping the housing market or increasing regulation assure the people that this will be done but it is time to focus on the problem--the credit crisis.

Bailout obstacles in Senate offer opportunity for McCain

2008-09-22T19:50:00.000-07:00

The latest Politico article has Frank and Paulsen nearing a deal with more congressional oversight but it is still facng roadblocks in upper chamber. I think this gives McCain a chance to shepherd this through the Senate and look bi-partisan and decisive and presidential.

It will hurt with conservative Republicans but the reality is they don't have a plan.

McCain's main sticking point seems to have been addressed.

And any hesitance on Obama's part will start to play really badly.

The longer it's unresolved, the more it drives the polls to Obama. I say get behind the plan and try to end the bad news. If the economy drags on much longer I don't think he has much chance anyway.

Assuming the oversight's strong enough there are two amendment's I'd fight for. One is a restriction on CEO and other employee salaries.

Two is some sort of profit-sharing agreement--'In the bad times we help you-in the good times you return the favour' It's only fair. Maybe some version of a typical balance sheet. Debit--troubled assets Credit--equity stake.

In a bit of an appeasement to hard line conservatives--stand firm on adding extras. Aid to homeowners and new foreclosure regulations (as well as massive regulatory overhaul) are necessary and will come in 09 but they do not address the problem. The issue is the credit crisis. Don't lose focus on that.

Obama's complacency and political calculation could hurt him

2008-09-21T21:06:00.000-07:00

Obama's lukewarm support for Paulson coupled with the Dems trying to milk the situation could hurt them. It is obvious and quite transparent that they are trying to extend this for their own political gain.

If McCain keeps putting out a new idea each day and calls for Democrats to come to a bi-partisan approach and pass Paulson's plan with no strings--Obama will increasingly be seen as obstructionist. He will deserve the blame he gets for what comes after.

The key is to keep McCain pro-active and engaged and bi-partisan--part of the solutiion not part of the probem.

And time is of the essence on this.

Either they pass it no strings or he takes the fall. The longer Obama dilly-dallies the worse it's going to be for him.

Have Palin expand on women's rights

2008-09-20T11:41:00.000-07:00

One idea to soften McCain's image (and change the discussion) is to have Palin talk a lot more about women's rights.

An open discussion of how she sees Roe vs. Wade-how she wants it to go back to the States; how it would get the feds out of the process; how she is pro-life but she is also realistic--we don't yet live in a society that will see an end of all abortions; how the end of Roe isn't the end of choice; how the libertarian philosophy--'the more complex the problem--the more localized the solution' is important; how it is important to empathize with both sides of the issue----all this would grab media attention, provide a bit of clarity, fight the naysayers, and rev up the base. IMHO, it would not alienate Clinton supporters and would appeal to women broadly.

Needless to say, she should say her position on life with regard to rape and incest is her own opinion and does not apply to John McCain. Similarly, he does not share her views on stem cells.

This brings me to a broader point on differences between McCain and Palin and specifically about pay equity. At the joint town hall-she seemed to more eagerly embrace 'equal pay' and he moved to play down the difference. I think it should be played up. "JOHN McCAIN DOESN'T REQUIRE YOU TO CHECK YOUR OPINIONS AT THE DOOR" I thought was one of the most endearing parts of the Hannity interview.

When she said softly, "I'll keep working on him" when asked about ANWR I thought--'That's how feminism should be'

Hint that Paulson be kept on

2008-09-18T20:54:00.001-07:00

McCain should hint that Paulson will be kept on in Treasury in a McCain administration because it is not a time to abandon experienced leadership for untested wannabes.

IMHO, his stance on the stability package should be cautiously supportive. The panic was feeding on itself and decisive action was necessary to prevent financial markets from freezing up. He should sound reluctant to put so much taxpayer money at risk but cautiously optimistic that the assets the government is buying will eventually recoup their value. Although the size of the package is humongous, it likely saved money for Main St. in the long run. That is why decisive action was necessary.

Going forward he should encourage bi-partisanship to ensure quick passge of the bill. It seems that the scope of the problem was so huge it encouraged Dems andd Repubs to come together in much the same way as the 9/11 report. He should salute this.

Finally the bill is only about the stabilization. The next administration needs to have signifcant reform so as to ensure greater transparenc y.

Teddy Roosevelt would approve of bank reforms

2008-09-18T20:54:00.000-07:00

Making sure the Treasury has sufficient power to reform the financial industry is something Teddy Roosevelt would approve of. His efforts to corral the power of trusts was in many ways similar to what is going on now. At the advent of the century, the industrial revolution had bestowed massive powers on this form of business combination.

Franklin Roosevelt reformed government and the market after unbridled speculation ushered in Black Friday and the Great Depression. Every time commerce innovates to promote new kinds of ownership in society a reform of that society is necessary.

Today's crisis was fueled by greed and corruption, but it is mostly, IMHO, a product of the lack of transparency of ownership in our society. Derivitive securites, off-balance sheet financing, securitzation, and swaps of asset backed securities have all made it difficult to tell who owns what. Masive reform of accounting policy, margin requirements and disclosure rules need to take place.

In the mean-time--the Treasury needs to have the authority and power to stabilize the system so that real reform can take place.

And McCain should know Teddy would approve of it.

Identify Fannie and Freddie as the culprits

2008-09-17T19:25:00.000-07:00

McCain should specifically identify Fannie and Freddie as the culprits at the centre of the financial meltdown and identify Chris Dodd and Barney Frank as some of the Democrats responsible for blocking reform. 'The culture of greed' at Fannie and Freddie led them to perpetuate the bad lending practices of Countrywide and other lenders in the sub-prime market.

McCain-Palin should make reform of these institutions their top priority. There will be Republican blame too, but these mavericks have shown they're willing to ruffle a few feathers to put America first.

Call for an independent investigation.

It will pay off as Obama's inner circle is more heavily associated with Fannie and Freddie (I understand McCain's is too--but I think it wiill show he's willing to attack the problem regardless of personal discomfort) The American people care about end results-not process.

Keep aggressive on Fannie and Freddie

2008-09-16T22:13:00.000-07:00

Keep stressing McCain will reform Fannie and Freddie while Obama took contributions from them. He talks a good game but he's a thinker, not a doer. When the teleprompters go away people will vote for the mavericks who will change things.

The voters want their change to come from effective regulation--not more of it.

1-2 punch on Lehman Bros:capital gains and oversight reform

2008-09-14T23:26:00.000-07:00

The topic Monday and for the next while is going to be the credit crunch and the economy. Respond with a 1-2 punch: 1--why Obama is wrong and 2-why McCain-Palin is right.

One-Obama is wrong because raising taxes on capital is the last thing we should do. The credit crunch has a lot to do with people's confidence in the solvency of its lending institutions. It is a proven economic principle that when you tax something you get less of it. America does NOT need to shrink the capital base of its credit markets.

Two-McCain-Palin is right because it will start change of oversight institutions. It is Congress that has stood in the way of change to Fannie and Freddie because it fears losing the massive campaign contributions they bring in. The original mavericks will change that.

Book Palin on Leno

2008-09-13T19:39:00.000-07:00

To counter the star power of Obama's SNL performance. I'm sure she could do a whole bunch of these and the media would eat it up. Suck all the airfrom Obambi for as long as possible!

Gov. Palin roll-out

2008-09-12T22:23:00.000-07:00

The interview with Gibson was awesome. I initially thought it might be good to blitz the media but I now think sticking to current strategy is better.

By keeping her away from media for as long as possible before giving them the minimum--you keep the media frenzy on Palin and let her act as a ligtbning rod for the Dems attacks and keeps them off balance. By keeping up with the victimhood thing (and I strongly suggest the David Letterman video below--it was NEVER about her being the pig, it was always about her being just a cosmetic distraction. The SC abortion comment, even though not on video, works well) will eat up media time.

Also this keeps the expectation that she will get wiped in the debate. Prep her non-stop about the details of foreign policy and economic policy.

Keep her ongeneralities and platitudes on the stump--but I think she needs more hard numbers and details about keeping spending low and reforming oversight programs. Also she needs to polish her foreign affairs answers so she is mstly hawkish but also just a little bit dovish.

Intense prep work will pay dividends later.

The two 'keep the media happy' interviews over the next two weeks I would suggest are with Katie Couric and Bob Scheiffer on face the nation.

Sit down with McCain and policy advisor and speech writer and write a standard stump speech about eneregy independence. It's her forte.

It's a good idea if they can be together in a battleground state.

"....the metaphor would be--she is the lipstick"

2008-09-11T19:38:00.000-07:00

Get the ad redy to go tomorrow. This is even more brutal than the original metaphor. If he thought that's possibly what people might construe--why would he use it? The guy went to Harvard for Pete's sake. And it's obvious the people at his rally construed it that way.

Get the message back on Palin. Back on change. Back on fighting for reform. Leading with energy.

My take on the lipstick fiasco

2008-09-10T14:59:00.000-07:00

Yes it is a common saying. Yes Republicans and John McCain have said it. But not in the past ten days.

We are not saying he compared Sarah Palin to a pig. The problem is that in the CONTEXT it was given the comment can be construed as sexist. She came on to the scene two weeks ago and especiially since the hockey Mom joke gender politics has risen to unprecedented levels. Media stories often had 'Lipstick' in the title and campaign signs read "Read my Lip-stick!" There was a swelling of female pride and EVERYONE associated lipstick in politics with this new phenom.

Further, when you are referencing your opponent who is making history, there are some words that you just don't go near. John McCain would never say that Obama "is the pot calling the kettle black."

Obama sums it up best when he references it tonight on David Letterman, "If I had meant it that way, I guess the metaphor would havve been---she is the lipstick-and the pig represents McCain selling the failed policies of the past eight years."

'All hands on deck' to solve energy crisis

2008-09-09T23:16:00.000-07:00

I think McCain should use this phrase to give Americans kind of a call to arms on energy independence. Fits well with the 'Fight with us' theme.

Contrasts McCain's position with that of Obama. Namely, calls out Obama on opposing coal, nuclear, off-shore drilling and trying to solve the problem by throwing $200 billion at the alternative energy sector.

Underscores the point that the situation is going to be solved not by a massive government program but by the ingenuity and determination of tens of thousands of Americans.

The experts will tell you that a big part of the problem is the subsidies, corporate interests, lobbyists, trade policies, political roadblocks and other special interests that block the most efficient sources from getting to market. Thomas Friedman has a chapter in his new book called 'China for a day.' He suggests that we turn authoritarian just for twenty-four hours so we can find what works best. In my opinion---right now that is the Pickens Plan.

I realize that 'lipstick' and 'sex ed for kindergarteners' will dominate for days and this is how you win elections. Real issues have to come up sometime though. IMHO he needs to own this issue because-other than this issue--he is quite similar to Bush. By saying 'all hands on deck' he is linking the issue to his heroic past and turning it into a populist battle cry.

Mention NFL in Lancaster tomorrow

2008-09-08T18:58:00.000-07:00

"How 'bout those Steelers?"
"How 'bout those Eagles?"
"Might be too soon to start thinking about an all Pennsylvania Super Bowl-but you never know. Althhough to get the NFC title Philadelphia would have to beat my Arizona Cardinals! I love the start of the football season!"

Tom Friedman's book

2008-09-07T23:56:00.000-07:00

Read Tom Friedman's book Hot, Flat & Crowded. Whichever side argues the alternative energy/independence from foreign oil with as much enthusiasm wins the election in a walk.

Nothing to do with climate change or peak oil. Its China and India--the world's demand for energy will keep growing. The easy-to-find oil is gone. New power sources are a must. The country that dominates alternative fuels gets rich with a capital R

Bi-farcate the press with Palin

2008-09-07T14:33:00.000-07:00

Is that a word? Dunno.

What I mean is the first interviews should be with CBS, Face the Nation (1/2 hour)

KATIE COURIC!!!!!

then O'Reilly, then Hannity then Nightline (1/2 hour), interviews with the Wahington Post and Wall Street Journal, finishing with ABC's Stephenopolous.

AVOID MSNBC AND NYT LIKE THE PLAGUE!

Let's see Chrissy Matthews et al knash their teeth a bit because she's doing everyone else but them. Keeps the notion going that they have been unfair. Let's see Matthews criticize a woman interviewer as not being tough enough.

If we're lucky maybe we can get the workd to see MSNBC as so Obama-biased that it loses all credibility. Burn baby burn!

Go big on Sarah`s natural gas pipeline

2008-09-06T20:03:00.000-07:00

The size of it and the fact that people said it couldn`t be done and had been stalled for decades are all winners.

Talking about natural gas delivered to the lower 48 states will also piggyback on the free media of the Pickens Plan (Pickens is big on compressed natural gas-which makes a lot of sense to me BTW).

For example, `These days-there`s a lot of talk about natural gas. One person who knows natural gas is Sarah Palin`` Ìn July, I signed the 40 B contract to build the pipeline that will bring Alaskan natural gas to the lower 48 states. But securing domestic supply is only part of the solution to the energy crisis. John McCain`s cap and emissions trading program will unleash the forces of the market. It will ensure the conservation and the ingenuity we need to solve this problem once and for all.``

The energy-green angle is a winning one that speaks of forward looking reform. It`s also key to the economy. You get the trifecta cause it deals with international relations too.

Reform. Prosperity. Peace.

IMHO you should link the 40 B pipeline to Pickens Monday Sept 8, keep on the energy-green train til Nov 5 and you don`t need to talk about much more.

And Palin can help with this while she gets briefed on other issues. She knows energy cold.

Dealing with Palin`s lack of press availability

2008-09-06T18:58:00.000-07:00

I say do the ad right away wher you play the Nov 5 2004 clip where he's asked about running for prez and he said he would have to start now and he likes to know what he's doing before applying for a job.

Establishes that he stated running on day 1.

If anyone questions her record or not doing interviews say 1-in 1992 her political career began and BO was community organizing 2-he was rnning for President while she was gettingthings done for Alaskans 3--she will be anwering questions and doing the debate

I would have Palin do a few brief satellite interviews on network news and brief press avaialbilities

You can play it out for a while that the sitdown inteerviews are with the old boys club and the Chris Matthews tpes who think they are the seat of wisdom.

After the debate, (where she has to hold her own) hit him hard on the experience thing Clinton`s `roll of the dice`` ètc.

I'm thinking keep her way from the MTP-types till after the debate.

Charlie rose interview on 11-23-04

2008-09-05T16:21:00.000-07:00

charlie rose on Nov 23, 2004

Just watched this and there are a few clips that might fit into McCain ad:

1-about 1/2 an hour in he talks about his motivation for getting into politics which seems to be its easier to social engineer when you have power because "The courts don't control the pursestrings" for the "experiment he's conducting" Heavily paraphrased of ourse He was asked why not go for the Supreme Ct.

2-Near the end of the interview he says he opposed the war at the start but then once the decision was made to go in the war had to be won but we had too much at stake to lose not to win

3-Roughly 2/3 of the way in he gives funny quips about how he is the 99th most junior senator and how his goal is to find the bathrooms. This could run well with the ecperience ad I'll post next

Palin speech II

2008-09-03T20:57:00.000-07:00

I didn't expect it to be so tough. 'Lipstick on a pitbull' might be the headline tomorrow. Aptly describes her.

What she needs now IMHO is intense brieffing the likes of which have never been seen before. She needs it all--government mechanics, economics, history, domestic policy, international relations and especially national security. I envision her getting lessons like how Neo in the Matrix learned Kung Fu.

No matter how well she is briefed though, a reporter is always going to come up with a gotcha! question she won't know the answer to. She can't learn everything in a week. She has to learn how to handle these situations without looking like a deer caught in the headlights. And the campaign needs to be ready to spin these situations into irrelevancy (which hopefully they will be to begin with)

IMHO, as well as this Matrix-like base level of knowledge, she will need a daily morning briefing of things in the news she might be asked about as well as high-profile issues relevant to where she ccampaigns (i.e. Yucca mountain in Nevada, Kwame Kilpatrick basics in Michigan.)

I know this briefing stuff could be tiresome,labor-intensive, and expensive, but I thinik it's worth it If its done right, based on what I saw tonight, it may win McCain the election.

Agree to do a live network interview during the 6:30 nightly news broadcast next week (they can't keep you more than 15 min) Aim for two intensive satellite interviews next weekend with media friendly outlets. Finally do the full hour in-person on MTP and Sunday circuit in a couple of weeks.

Palin speech

2008-09-03T20:54:00.001-07:00

Wow! Great speech-I've never seen Obama ripped inton like that

Palin shuld link 30 B gas piprline to Pickens Plan

2008-09-03T13:29:00.000-07:00

Not that the ticket endorsesd the CNG thing. But the success of the pipeline undersors the need for us to marshall our domestic resources . Would be good to get free advertising too.

Palin speech should address N Korean threat

2008-09-02T14:55:00.000-07:00

McCain's luck continues. I heard rumblings on Fox that the DPRK is re starting its reactors. L et her be briefed to the teeth on this, and let the first time the US people see her respond to an unexpected foreign affairs crisis be on her own terms. For added oomph, let no one else mention it first.

Family concern about Palin

2008-08-30T12:23:00.000-07:00

Another concern I have is whether or not she and her family are ready for this job especially with the newborn with special needs. I know she is an awesome supermom and that her kids are old enough to help.

But I think it behooves John McCain and the GOP generally to offer to help make things work in this special case.

An offer of round-the-clock babysitting would score points with women and feminists on the left, centre and right. On the left some may be preoccupied with leveling the playing field generally. Those in the middle may feel she should only focus on her son. Some on the right may beleive that her place is in the home to begin with. This last is anathema to me but these people are out there.

But making sure that her special situation is accomodated not only scores political points--it is also the right thing to do.

Breathing easier on Palin's experience

2008-08-30T12:14:00.000-07:00

Today I am feeling better about her ability to step into the top job. Today's Financial Post reprints an interview it did with Palin a couple of months ago about the proposed $30 B natural gas pipeline. It shows her as wicked competent and that she knows her stuff cold.

If she is thoroughly briefed on foreign afairs stuff I'm sure she'll be OK

FP interview

Dazed and confused

2008-08-30T11:15:00.000-07:00

Independent Dude is giddy but a little queasy about the selection of Sarah Palin.

Giddy because they chose a woman! And new, fresh, invigorating and exciting. She is also conservative, which is refereshing and agrees with independent dude's mildly right tilted politics.

There in lies the rub. Or one of the rubs. She is way too socially conservative. Even more than I thought. I am crazy anti- gun but I have just learned to accept the NRA even though they make me shudder. I keep hearing she is far right on the life-choice issue and my stance is much more moderate. I've heard vague rumours xhe wants creationism taught in schools and that worries me.

Most troubling of all to me is that she supported Pat Buchanan over Bush in 2000. So W was too soft for her. ............Al-right-y then.

For me to be comfortable with this ticket (and I think a lot of independents would agree) she has to soften these positions over the next few days and especially in her speech on Wednesday.

The Palin pick in some ways is reminiscent of the old McCain that I would take a bullet for. She is tough-minded reformer who has the maverick reputtion of going against her party for the good of the people. But the social conservative part of her resume dovetails too well with the views of James Dobson and others in the evangelical hierarchy. I think her views need to be shifted more towards the centre as the strength of McCain's brand is built upon railing against the establishment.

Top 10 reasons Sarah Palin is a great pick

2008-08-29T12:12:00.000-07:00

10. She is a woman. McCain`s opponents had huge excitement, understandably, about sending the first woman or the first African American, possibly both-to the Whitehouse. Going with the old, tired, white male would have been safe but deadly.

9. She is a woman. This will help with female voters, who comprise a majority of the electorate on both sides. In an election about change--it helps McCain steal part of Obama`s message.

8. She is a woman. And it is about time.

7. She is fiscally conservative and cut taxes as a two-term mayor in the largest borough of Anchorage. It is now one of Alaska's fastest growing cities.

6. She is tough enough to be commander-in-chief. She is commander of Alaska`s National Guard and has spent her life in leadership roles. I bet she can`t wait to prove herself over the next two months and is especially eager for the debate against Joe Biden.

5. She has a lot of experience with energy issues. At a time when oil is running over $100/ a barrel and everyone wants to get off foreign oil this will be an asset. A new pipeline bill which she spearheaded recently passed and will help move America towards energy independence.

4. She is young. An attractive mother in her early forties balances the 'grumpy old man' McCain can sometimes be/be portrayed as.

3. She buttresses McCain`s reputation as a reformer. Much of her political life has been centred on ethics issues/legislation. She has stood up to those in her own party and dovetails with McCain`s `maverick`image. This fits well with McCain's rants about 'the bridge to nowhere' and the corruption of Abramoff and how we need to change etc. (see pt 9)

2. She is for drilling in ANWR. This plays with conservatives. She is against global warming. This plays with the rest of humanity.

1. For all her executive experience (another plus for a Senator) and all the boards she has sat on and chairs she has held (e.g. human rights--think Guantanamo Bay, think waterboarding) and though she is no shrinking violet--she may be criticized because of her youth and inexperience. This negative can be turned into a positive, however, by throwing it right back into Barack Obama's face. If it is claimed she's not ready to take over the presidency, then by what standard does he claim to be experienced enough to be commander-in chief on day one?

OMIGOSH!

2008-08-29T10:53:00.000-07:00

Alrighty then.

Independent dude is really not sure where to start.

Obviously, I think this is an amazing pick but one that kind of scares me.

Is she readyÉ

If she was a second term govenor she would have been perfect.

But then her relative inexperience reflects back on Obama.

A lot depends on how the American people see her perform over the next two months.

Breathless in Ottawa

Independent-Dude

Obama's flip on drilling driven by polls

2008-08-02T10:04:00.000-07:00

McCain's change of position was based on gas rising to $4.00 a barrell in May and June.

What changed in JulyÉ Nothing except that Obama`s traits of elitism and arrogance drove his poll numbers down.

The gas price has actually come down in the past few weeks.

This about face is especially audacious since it comes less than 24 hours after the Pelosi led Congress left on summer recess after refusing to deal with the problem.

The Democrats have effectively stalled long enough so that Obama can now say he was always for drilling but has been thwarted by congress.

If you go to the Dictionary and look up ``having your cake and eating it too`` you will see his picture.

I just hope we can get a picture of him windsurfing this summer!

Ideas for McCain's convention speech

2008-07-16T11:04:00.000-07:00

Have given up on the idea of replacing Mark Salter. He's McCain's alter-ego, and JM will never be rid of him. Here are some ideas though for the convention speech.

give Salter two or three editors. At least one should be a first rate speech writer. Their task is mainly to make it sound like McCain is using his own words.
JM's townhalls should be the model--he is an absolute rock star when using his own voice. Every sentence should meet the test 'Would JM say this if he were asked about it in a townhall?'
His townhalls are so good you should at least consider using this format. You could order a bunch of bullet points and just have JM talk about it
Personal stories like Bud Day, the Hispanic American in the POW camp and JM's bi-partisan mentor who died in the 90's are very touching
'Feeling the pain' connection stories with everyday Americans he meets on the campaign should outnumber these three to one.
repeat the broad themes of Reform, Prosperity and Peace over and over--go light on policy details
his bona fides as a maverick should be highlighted in the film and glossed over in the speech. The surge is the best example of how he put 'doing what is right ahead of partisan politics'
get the speech as good as you can before practising delivery (e.g. teleprompters etc.)

Specifics:

No words like moreover--very few adverbs
cut down on long sentences and especially run-on sentences--if he has to think back to what the verb was preceding the last subsidiary clause--it will sound like he's reading
get rid of little explanatory asides that don't do anything (e.g. "All around us, most every nation, with fe exceptions, have adopeted...." Just say, "Most nations have adopted....")
know what the applause line is and don't have him step on the landing. Finish on the strongest part. Stop ttalking. Wait for the applause. Then move on. "In Iraq, America is winning." "If I am elected your president--we will finish the job." "In Afghanistan, our enemies are those who attacked us on 9/11. If they think we won't fight back, they have another thing coming." "The first priority is to fix our broken borders." "It is a mistake to raise taxes." "No reform is more critical than getting off foreign oil." "The first step is to drill here""The second step is to use less""The third step is to innovate"

Salter's version (original) of McCain's NALEO speech

2008-07-02T12:04:00.000-07:00

THIS VERSION MAY BE MORE POETIC THAN MINE-BUT i THINK MINE IS EASIER TO READ AND SOUNDS MORE LIKE MCCAIN

June 28, 2008
McCain's Speech to NALEOJohn McCain
National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Conference Washington, D.C.

Thank you. It's good to be with you. I want to speak very briefly, and then take your questions. I have the privilege today of speaking before my opponent, Senator Obama, whose talent as an orator, as you might notice, is somewhat greater than mine. I will not overemphasize that fact by indulging your patience with a lengthy speech. Fortunate for me and you, I enjoy listening and responding to my audience's questions more than I do delivering formal remarks. So, I want to share just a few thoughts with you, and then move quickly to your questions, comments or insults.

We meet after another week of rising gasoline prices, another stock market sell-off, more mortgage foreclosures and the increasing loss of the American people's confidence in the economy. The question of how government should respond to these troubling developments will shape much of the debate in this election, and I want to offer a few thoughts about what I believe we should do and not do.

It is a terrible mistake to raise taxes during an economic downturn. Increasing the tax burden on Americans impedes job growth, discourages innovation and makes us less competitive. Small businesses are the biggest job creators in our economy. Keeping individual tax rates low isn't intended as a favor to wealthy Americans. Most small business owners pay those rates, and taking more money from them deprives them of the capital they need to invest and grow and hire. There are two million Latino owned businesses in America, a number that is growing very rapidly. The first consideration we should have when debating tax policy is how we can help those companies grow and increase the prosperity of the millions of American families whose economic security depends on their success.

Government should be on their side, not in their way.

Our current business tax rate, the second highest in the world, will postpone our recovery from this downturn and make us increasingly less competitive in the world economy. When a corporation plans to expand and hire more workers, they face a choice between building a new plant here at home and building it in a country like Ireland where they will pay less than half the tax rate they now pay. Employers can hire more people, or they can pay more taxes. We can no longer afford the luxury of nostalgia for past times when American business faced little serious
competition in the world.

The global economy is here to stay. We cannot build walls to foreign competition, and why should we want to. When have Americans ever been afraid of competition? America is the biggest exporter, importer, producer, saver, investor, manufacturer, and innovator in the world. Americans don't run from the challenge of a global economy. The courage, patriotism, ingenuity and industry of our forbears earned the reverence we hold for our storied past. But we have never been a country that substitutes nostalgia for optimism. We have never been a country that would rather go back than forward. We are the world's leaders, and leaders don't fear change, hide from challenges, pine for the past and dread the future. We make the future better than the past. That's why I reject the false virtues of economic isolationism. Any confident, competent government should embrace competition - it makes us stronger - not hide from our competitors a nd cheat our consumers and workers. We can compete and win, as we always have, or we can be left behind. Lowering barriers to trade creates more and better jobs, and higher wages. It keeps inflation under control and interest rates low. It makes goods more affordable for low and middle income consumers. Protectionism threatens all those benefits.
Opening new markets for American goods and services is indispensable to our future prosperity. But in the global economy what you learn is what you earn. Today, half of Latinos and half of African Americans entering high school will never graduate. By the 12th grade, U.S. students in math and science score near the bottom of all industrialized nations. As Bill Gates said, "This isn't an accident or flaw in the system. It is the system." Many parents fear their children won't have the same opportunities they had. That is simply unacceptable in a country as great as ours. In many schools, particularly where people are struggling the hardest, the situation is dire, and I believe poses the civil rights challenge of our time. We need to shake up failed school bureaucracies with competition; hold schools accountable for results; strengthen math, science, technology and engineering curriculums; empower parents with choice; remove barriers to qualified instructors, attract and reward superior teachers, and have a fair but sure process to weed out incompetents.

I have spent the last two weeks addressing the problem that is causing Americans the most pain right now, our dependence on imported oil, and how to free ourselves from a situation that threatens our economy, our environment and our national security. Obviously, the crisis most acutely affects lower income Americans, who often drive the furthest to work and own the oldest cars. There are a few, but not many, things we can do in the short term to alleviate the economic distress Americans are feeling as they pay more and more of their income for gasoline, and higher prices for groceries and almost all goods that are affected by spiraling increase in the price of oil. But we must commit ourselves to addressing this problem as quickly as humanly possible, and we must commit this country to the great national cause of breaking our strategic dependence on foreign oil. To do that, we must address both the supply and demand sides o f the problem. We must produce more oil at home, and while exploration and production will take some time, it will have an earlier effect on the oil futures market. When futures traders believe the supply of oil will increase in the years ahead and the cost of a barrel of oil will be lower, it will help curb some of the speculation in those markets that are driving prices so much higher today

But the lasting solution to all the problems associated with our dependence on foreign oil is to begin in the term of the next president the most ambitious program ever to reduce our demand for the fuel that is a powerful inflationary force in our economy; is causing our climate to change with all the unimaginable problems that creates; and is ransoming our future to regimes that care little for our values or our security. We need to unleash the competitive forces of the free market to encourage clean alternatives -- wind, solar, tide, nuclear, and clean coal. But to really achieve energy security, we must address the area where the demand for oil is the greatest the way we fuel our transportation system. I have promised a plan, which I called the Lexington Project, for the place where America's war for independence began, which will encourage the investment and innovation necessary to wean our cars, buses, and trucks off of our complete dependence on gasoline. This will take time, but the longer we wait to begin, the longer it will take to achieve. It is an ambitious plan, but I am confident that our industry and entrepreneurs, and all Americans are up to this next great challenge in our history. The genius, hard work and courage of Americans have never failed us, and will not fail us now.

Let me close by talking briefly about my respect and gratitude for the contributions of Hispanic-Americans to the culture, economy and security of the country I have served all my adult life. I represent Arizona where Spanish was spoken before English was, and where the character and prosperity of our state owes a great deal to the many Arizonans of Hispanic descent who live there. And I know this country, which I love more than almost anything, would be the poorer were we deprived of the patriotism, industry and decency of those millions of Americans whose families came here from Mexico, Central and South America. I will honor their contributions to America for as long as I live.

I and many other colleagues twice attempted to pass comprehensive immigration legislation to fix our broken borders; ensure respect for the laws of this country; recognize the important economic necessity of immigrant laborers; apprehend those who came here illegally to commit crimes; and deal practically and humanely with those who came here, as my distant ancestors did, to build a better, safer life for their families, without excusing the fact they came here illegally or granting them privileges before those who did. Many Americans, with good cause, did not believe us when we said we would secure our borders, and so we failed in our efforts. We must prove to them that we can and will secure our borders first, while respecting the dignity and rights of citizens and legal residents of the United States. But we must not make the mistake of thinking that our responsibility to meet this challenge will end with that accomplish ment. We have economic and humanitarian responsibilities as well, and they require no less dedication from us in meeting them.

When I was in prison in Vietnam, I like other of my fellow POWs, was offered early release by my captors. Most of us refused because we were bound to our code of conduct, which said those who had been captured the earliest had to be released the soonest. My friend, Everett Alvarez, a brave American of Mexican descent, had been shot down years before I was, and had suffered for his country much more and much longer than I had. To leave him behind would have shamed us. When you take the solemn stroll along that wall of black granite on the national Mall, it is hard not to notice the many names such as Rodriguez, Hernandez, and Lopez that so sadly adorn it. When you visit Iraq and Afghanistan you will meet some of the thousands of Hispanic-Americans who serve there, and many of those who risk their lives to protect the rest of us do not yet possess the rights and privileges of full citizenship in the country they love so well. To love your country, as I discovered in Vietnam, is to love your countrymen. Those men and women are my brothers and sisters, my fellow Americans, an association that means more to me than any other. As a private citizen or as your President, I will never, never do anything to dishonor our obligations to them and their families or to forget what they and their ancestors have done to make this country the beautiful, bountiful, blessed place we love.

Thank you.

Independent Dude's version of McCain's NALEO speech

2008-07-02T11:25:00.000-07:00

McCain's Speech to NALEO
John McCain
National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Conference Washington, D.C.

Thank you. It's good to be with you. I want to speak very briefly, and then take your questions. I have the privilege today of speaking before my opponent, Senator Obama, whose talent as an orator, as you might notice, is somewhat greater than mine. I will not overemphasize that fact by indulging your patience with a lengthy speech. Fortunate for me and you, I enjoy listening and responding to my audience's questions more than I do delivering formal remarks. So, I want to share just a few thoughts with you, and then move quickly to your questions, comments or insults

We meet after another week of rising gasoline prices, another stock market sell-off, and more mortgage foreclosures. With this bad news comes the increasing loss of the American’s confidence in the economy. The question of how government should respond will shape much of the debate in this election. Today I want to offer a few thoughts about what I believe we should do. I’ll start with what we should not do.

We should not raise taxes. This would be a terrible mistake during an economic downturn. Increasing the tax burden on Americans impedes job growth, discourages innovation and makes us less competitive. Small businesses are the biggest job creators in our economy. Keeping individual tax rates low isn't intended as a favor to wealthy Americans. Most small business owners pay those rates, and taking more money from them deprives them of the capital they need to invest and grow and hire. There are two million Latino owned businesses in America, a number that is growing very rapidly. The first consideration we should have when debating tax policy is how we can help those companies grow.

Government should be on their side, not in their way.

Our current business tax rate, the second highest in the world, will make us increasingly less competitive in the world economy. When a corporation plans to expand and hire more workers, they face a choice between building a new plant here or overseas. In a country like Ireland for example, they will pay less than half the tax rate they pay in the US. Employers can hire more people, or they can pay more taxes. America must cut corporate taxes to compete.

We should not put up barriers to trade. The global economy is here to stay. We cannot build walls to foreign competition, and why should we?. When have Americans ever been afraid of competition? America is the biggest exporter, importer, producer, saver, investor, manufacturer, and innovator in the world. Americans don't run from the challenge of a global economy. We have never been a country that would rather go back than forward. We are the world's leaders, and leaders don't fear change, hide from challenges, pine for the past or dread the future. We make the future better than the past. That's why I reject economic isolationism. Any confident, competent government should embrace competition - it makes us stronger. Lowering barriers to trade creates more and better jobs. It keeps inflation under control and interest rates low. It makes goods more affordable for low and middle income consumers. Protectionism threatens all those benefits. We can compete and win, or we can be left behind.

We should improve our education system. In the global economy what you learn is what you earn. Today, half of Latinos and half of African Americans entering high school will never graduate. By the 12th grade, U.S. students in math and science score near the bottom of all industrialized nations. As Bill Gates said, "This isn't an accident or flaw in the system. It is the system." Many parents fear their children won't have the same opportunities they had. That is simply unacceptable in a country as great as ours. In many inner-city schools, I believe the situation poses the civil rights challenge of our time. .

We need to shake up failed schools; hold schools accountable ; strengthen math and science, curriculums; empower parents with choice; remove barriers to qualified instructors, reward superior teachers, and weed out the incompetents.

And we should bring down the high cost of fuel. As you well know, high prices hit lower income Americans the hardest. Unfortunately, our options to bring down fuel prices in the short-term are limited. We need to plan for our economy in the future.

As I have repeated these past two weeks, our oil dependence threatens more than our economy. Reducing carbon-emissions is also an environmental duty. And our reliance on foreign oil threatens our national security. It is a complex problem that will take time and hard work to solve. Americans have never shied away from hard work. But if we are to solve this problem-we must start now.

To do that, we must address both the supply and demand sides o f the problem. We must produce more oil at home, and this will drive the futures’ price down.. This in turn will hurt oil speculators. Speculation is a big part of why prices have skyrocketed.

But the lasting solution to high gas prices is the most comprehensive reform our nation has embarked upon since WWII.. I call this reform ‘The Lexington Project’
It begins with our education system. We need to reform it to it to train the engineers and scientists of the future.

We need massive investments in clean alternatives -- wind, solar, tide, nuclear, and clean coal. This is best done through market-driven reforms.

But to really achieve energy security, we reduce the demand for oil in our transportation system. We need to encourage the innovation necessary to wean our cars, buses, and trucks off of our complete dependence on gasoline.

Let me close by talking briefly about my respect for the Hispanic-American community. I have tremendous gratitude for their contributions to our culture, economy and security. I represent Arizona where Spanish was spoken before English., The character and prosperity of our state owes a great deal to the many Arizonans of Hispanic descent And I know this country, would be worse off if we didn’t have their patriotism, industry and decency I will honor their contributions to America for as long as I live.

I and many other colleagues twice attempted to pass comprehensive immigration legislation to fix our broken borders. The solution will address different goals. We must: ensure respect for the laws of this country; recognize the economic necessity of immigrant laborers; apprehend those who came here illegally to commit crimes; and deal practically and humanely with those who came here. After all, almost all of our ancestors did the same. And their goal was no different-to build a better life while building this country. d. Many Americans, with good cause, did not believe us when we said we would secure our borders, and so we failed in our efforts. We must prove to them that we can and will secure our borders first, while respecting the dignity and rights of citizens and legal residents of the United States. But we must not make the mistake of thinking that our responsibility ends there. We have economic and humanitarian responsibilities as well, and they require no less dedication from us.

When I was in prison in Vietnam, some POW s were offered early release. Most of us refused because we were bound to our code of conduct, which said those who had been captured first got released first. My friend, Everett Alvarez, a brave American of Mexican descent, had been shot down years before I was, and had suffered for his country much longer than I had. To leave him behind would have shamed me.

When you take the solemn stroll along that wall of black granite on the national Mall, it is hard not to notice the many names such as Rodriguez, Hernandez, and Lopez that so sadly adorn it. In Iraq and Afghanistan are thousands of Hispanic-Americans. Many of those who risk their lives do not yet possess the rights and privileges of full citizenship in the country they serve.

To love your country, as I discovered in Vietnam, is to love your countrymen. Those men and women are my brothers and sisters. They are my fellow Americans--an association that means more to me than any other. As your President, I will never, never do anything to dishonor our obligations to them and their families. Just as I will never forget what they and their ancestors have done to make this country so beautiful, bountiful, and blessedl.

Thank you.

7 ways to help oust Mugabe

2008-06-26T09:21:00.000-07:00

This excerpt is re-printed from Mr. Barton-Ash's column in DailyTelegraph of London. We need to stand for change in Africa.

We - through our elected governments - can work for a second UN resolution, stronger than the last.
We can encourage our governments - as many as possible, especially those outside the traditional west - not to recognise as Zimbabwe's legitimate leader the president who emerges from this Friday's terror sham election (assuming it goes ahead, despite yesterday's appeal for postponement from the leaders of Tanzania, Angola and Swaziland).
We can shame the mining giant Anglo-American into not pushing ahead, under Mugabe, with its £200m investment in a platinum mine at Unki.
We can spread the word that the Queen - the royal "we" - has at long last stripped Mugabe of his honorary knighthood.
We can sign the petition to Thabo Mbeki and other leaders of Southern Africa on avaaz.org, to be published in newspapers across the region. (The number of signatories has risen from 90,000 to over 111,000 while I've been writing this article.)
Then anyone in London can join a planned small demonstration at Nelson Mandela's 90th birthday party in Hyde Park this Friday, respectfully asking the old hero to urge Mugabe to leave the stage. Mandela's discretion and loyalty to his successor Thabo Mbeki have, in this regard, outlived their useful term. Few contrasts are more painful than that between these two veteran anti-colonial leaders and long-term political prisoners, Mandela and Mugabe, the one ennobled and the other embittered by long struggle and imprisonment. Few voices would carry more weight in the world than that of Mandela calling for Mugabe to go.
Last but not least, we should listen to what the legitimate representatives of the majority in Zimbabwe say about stepping up sanctions. An obvious objection is: "But broader sanctions would hurt the people, who are already suffering enough." Sometimes, though, the people themselves are prepared to take the pain for long-term gain. Or at least, that's what their legitimate representatives tell us - and how else can we know? That was the message from the ANC under the apartheid regime in South Africa and from Solidarity in Poland. In both those cases, the historical record suggests that sanctions did contribute to the eventual good result. In other places, sanctions made things worse. To say simply that sanctions don't work is a useless, lazy generalisation."

Palin on drilling and the need for a woman VP!!!

2008-06-25T21:20:00.000-07:00

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=778627350

This is a great interview on CNBC

Re: Independent Dude's illicit attendance at a McCain event

2008-06-22T18:58:00.000-07:00

John McCain spoke at the Chateau Laurier Friday, and Independent Dude sneaked by event planners, police, and secret service to attend.

It actually was not that 'James Bond'--but I like to pretend.

I was told that the event was totally sold out but I would not be denied. I went to look at the room on the pre-tense of checking out the set-up, and I figured that if I lodged myself in a corner maybe no one would throw me out. I was there like two hours early, so I played games on my cell-phone to act like I belonged. A couple of white lies and one suspicious look from an RCMP guard later I got a partially unobstructed view of McCain speaking. I think he may have noticed my overjoyed expression because he half-smiled back for a micro-second.

The speech met my approval.

Obama seal--HBO's 'windsurfer' moment

2008-06-22T10:17:00.000-07:00

HBO's attempt to look presidential will backfire on him. Its audacity is breathtaking. Changing a symbol of patriotism for your own self-aggrandizement speaks volumes.

It reminds us of his issues with patriotism.

It reminds us that HBO is NOT ready to be commander-in-chief.

But he THINKS he is. Actually he KNOWS he is.

Which is why it is arrogant. Which is why it is elite.

Which is why it is perfect.

Raising money for the 2009 ataxia conference

2008-06-19T13:27:00.000-07:00

Go to http://www.givemeaning.com/project/ataxia

The BC Ataxia Society was created to connect and support people with ataxia and to work to raise awareness and promote research opportunities. Because the National Ataxia Foundation (NAF), (http://www.ataxia.org in the US, is a much larger organization that funds a wide variety of research. They also list us as a support group which helps us connect with more people, from across Canada.

The NAF also holds an annual membership meeting in the US. Five to six hundred people attend each year, many for the first time, but never the last. People with ataxia and those who support them come from all over Canada and the United States and some travel from as far away as England, Argentina, and Hong Kong. There is one common link within these families--and that is ataxia.

We believe this conference is an important forum to connect people with ataxia, raise awareness about the key issues, and share information about cutting edge research. Because the 2009 meeting will be in Seattle, the closest meeting ever to people in British Columbia, we want to take this opportunity to increase Canadian involvement.The NAF conference consists of workshops, speeches about the different types of hereditary ataxias and sporatic ataxia from prominent researchers and doctors from around the world, the Friday night first timers reception, the Saturday night banquet, and meeting Kyle Bryant (the 25 year old with Friedreich’s Ataxia, who rode his trike from Sacramento to Las Vegas and raised over $110,000.00 for research). One of the best things about the conference is meeting all the people with ataxia. There is also a Birds of a Feather 3 hour session where individuals with the same types of ataxia get together and talk to the doctors and ask any questions they want.

There are also reports on research that is being done in all forms of ataxia. The first goal is is to stop ataxia from progressing, and the next step is to reverse the damage it has caused. To do this researchers need money to continue to find answers and to supportclinical trials.In March 2009 (Mar 20 – Mar 22), BC Ataxia Society has been asked to co-host the meeting along with the Seattle support group. With our support, this will be the first international meeting. The primary reason the annual meeting is held in a different city each year is to give ataxia families a better chance to attend because many have financial restraints. Even in those cases, many ataxia families cannot afford the travel and lodging to attend.

The NAF has structured the registration fees to allow more people to attend. In doing so, the registration fees account for less than 40% of the cost to host the meeting. BC Ataxia Society would like to raise funds to contribute to the conference in Seattle. $10,000 is needed to help fund this conference, but of course any amount we can contribute would be great. As BC Ataxia Society is a registered charity, a receipt will be issued for every donation.

Please help us reach this goal, and take this opportunity, until the end of July 2008, to fundraise on these pages and use these tools to make it easier.

Much thanks to you for your care, understanding and suppo

Obama backs out of public financing promise

2008-06-19T11:41:00.000-07:00

Obama said, "I’m asking you to try to do something that’s never been done before. Declare our independence from a broken system, and run the type of campaign that reflects the grassroots values that have already changed our politics and brought us this far."

Declaring independence from a "broken system" by breaking a promise. Obama hopes you'll care more about the former than the latter.

Responding to 'Baby Alex'

2008-06-18T09:09:00.000-07:00

If I was part of the campaign I'd be making a response ad to the 'Baby Alex' ad. It was effective and devastating and needs to be responded to. I'll post suggested text later.

McCain drops opposition to domestic policy

2008-06-17T13:05:00.000-07:00

Yay!

Now if only he could change his mind on ANWR. Maybe a trip to Alaska to tour ANWR with Sarah Palin (the governor of Alaska who is pro-AnWR drilling) will help change his mind that it can be done in an environmentally friendly way

I think this is a political home run. It rallies the base in a big way and speaks to the middle of the country who is concerned about oil prices.

It alienates hard core environmentalists, but they are lost anyway. Focus on wind and solar--as well as the cap and trade thing--is enough to get most of the 'green' independents.

Keep on the greedy speculation cause it's true. It may be as much as 30-40% of the price. Some of that is tied into a political risk premium though. An idea to burst the speculative bubble is to mention a temporary one-time dump of the strategic petroleum reserve.

On the gas tax holiday--emphasize the point that consumers need a break at this specific point in our economy. Call it-'the fierce urgency of now'

McCain vs. Obama online--like a horse and buggy vs. a NASA prototype

2008-06-16T10:28:00.000-07:00

TeamPolitico: Jun. 15, 2008 - 7:07 AM EST
"I think we have a strong online operation," said Mark Soohoo, McCain's deputy e-campaign director. "It was good enough in the primaries."

OK I'm sorry but this is a really dim-witted statement. Read the opening quote of NASA vs. the horse and buggy. Complacency doesn't work. McCain's not competing against Mitt Romney.

It's not a good attitude for a deputy e-campaign director to have. You need world-class innovative thinkers at the top.

I think the article underestimates the advantage the online game gives Obama. We're going to look back and say 2008 was the first election where the digital game eclipsed traditional politics.

If the GOP wants to win it needs to put the same priority into this as it did into micro-targetting last time.

My advice to the campaign is to shift gears and quadruple the resources put into the online effort.. (Take it away from traditional advertising) Concentrate on networking.,

Staff up with young people and get the most creative minds at the top.

Copy what Obama does almost exactly. One of the perils of competing online is that your enemy can see what you're doing.

A simple example is the website Obama launched last week to combat negative attacks called 'Fight the Smear' Brilliant idea. Launch 'Expose the Smear' to fight ageism.

Right on Guantanamo?

2008-06-15T08:59:00.000-07:00

Mark Salter needs to go

2008-06-13T18:25:00.001-07:00

In the past I have said Mark Salter needs an editor, but now I think he has to go completely (just in the speechwriting role).

It is unnatural for someone to lookk SO good doing townhalls and TV interviews and SO bad at the podium. I suggest that it is because Salter's words are so foreign to McCain that it sounds like he's reading. Although Salter can be erudite and eloquent--you can tell they're not McCain's words. Salter can still draft the broad outlines of the speech--what to cover and when---but when it comes to putting the pooints in sentences they need someone completely new.

If Mark Salter is not the speechwriter then I owe him an apology.

The new speechwriter has to ask one question over and over. 'How would McCain say this?'

'Dump half the strategic petroleum reserve?'

2008-06-12T20:30:00.000-07:00

On O'Reilly tonight Newt Gingich talked about three ways to lower gas prices.

1- he reccommended dumping half the strategic petroleum reserve. This would pop the bubble of speculation and hurt a lot of the hedge funds. And how long would it take to rebuild the reserve? Even the hint that the feds are considering this could drive down oil prices.

2-he reccommended mandating flex fuel vehicles by some year

3-And he reccommended opening up offshore and Rocky Mountain drilling. Especially using new techology.

Again I suggest McCain re-consider ANWR--and say that Sarah Palin convinced him.

'Expose the smear'

2008-06-12T18:07:00.000-07:00

Obama had a great idea today of launching the website--fight the smear--to combat negative impressions about him. It is perfect for the new world where almost everyone can say anything with impunity.

I suggest copying it--almost exactly--and right away. If the campaign can think of a better name-go with it. There is a good point to using the word 'expose' though. It tags the left with the impression they're as bad as the swiftboaters.

Don't be ashamed of following their lead. They had a great idea and one double-edged thing about the openness of the internet is that your enemy can see your tactics and copy them.

The first topic can be Kerry's blatant ageist comment yesterday saying McCain was "confused" If you look at the clip it is clear that McCain was anything but. That comment just looks mean and even Chrissy Matthews is embarrassed by it. I think it could be big. No one likes Kerry anyway.

Guantanamo Bay ruling provides opportunity for McCain

2008-06-12T14:11:00.000-07:00

Today's SCOTUS ruling presents an opportunity for McCain--he can now raise the issue and speak in favour of why it should be closed without raising the ire of the right.

He should say he has mixed feelings on the issue.

He can mention Abu Ghreib and how that helped the insurgency and how the administration got it wrong--"If it were me, I would have accepted [Rumsfeld's] resignation on the spot" He can mention how GB has been seen as an icon of everything Al-Qaeda hates about America and has hurt our relations in the Arab world and indeed all over the planet. And he can mention how he always was in favour of closing GB and how he always saw it as part of America taking back the high road against terror (i.e. no torture)

At the same time, however, and he's got to be forceful on this because tonight will only play on FOX, he's got to say we can't show other forms of weakness. This includes beginning an immediate withdrawal from Iraq, regardless of what the generals say. One of the reasons that the SCOTUS decision is even possible is that Al-Qaeda has been severely weakened in Iraq. This is due in part to the success of the surge under General Petraeus's leadership and grassroots negotiation with Iraqis. Obama wants to change all that.

Al-Qaeda is also being pressured elsewhere. Just the other day 2 top al-Qaeda officials were bombed on the Afghan-Pakistanni border.

It is not time to stop being on the offense against terror.

What to do with Cheney?

2008-06-11T12:05:00.000-07:00

Read the whole article here.

TeamPolitico: Jun. 11, 2008 - 4:53 AM EST
Asked about what role Cheney would have in the campaign, McCain communications director Jill Hazelbaker only said: “John McCain will always treat the vice president with respect.”

Even this is too warm....I would say "JM will always treat the office or institution of the vice-presidency with respect.

On a personal level, I loathe him. I don't think JM can diss him enough. I think considering the enormous headwinds JM's facing--he should consider, and the base should accept, Cheney not being allowed to speak at the convention.

This may not be politically feasible though. His convention appearance should be softened by placing moderates speaking aroun him. Minorities and women help too. Maybe Bobby Jindal before and Sarah Palin after. No grumpy old white men on the same night!

And he should emphaticallty stress his differences frrom JM. Nonetheless JM is Better than Obama. Then dump the red meat. This should be his message whenever there is a camera present.

He should help with fundraising and private exhortations to the base and that's it.

Maybe focus on loosening the wallets of the 90% of donors who maxed out to Bush but not yet JM?

McCain: "Date for leaving Iraq not too important"

2008-06-11T11:19:00.000-07:00

Read the story on the interview with Matt Lauer on the 'Today Show' here

McCain's got to fine-tune his message that its not just about American casualties.

Its also about the $ we are spending in Iraq and the opportunity cost of not spending that money here.

He can argue that he is saving America money in the long run. If we start withdrawing and pull the rug out from under Petraeus just as the troops have got us within grasp of victory--it could all fall apart and we'd have to go back in at greater expense.

This is true regardless of whether you supported the initial invasion.

HBO's Six Stages of Problem-Solving

2008-06-10T13:48:00.000-07:00

The recent revelatons that Jim Johnson, one of Obama's VP search vetters, was involved in the mortgage sub-prime mess gives us insight into how he deals with problems.

Stage 1--Try not to get caught.

Stage 2--Deny the problem.
Stage 3--Minimize the problem.
Stage 4--Claim that you offer a "new paradigm" to view the problem.

Stage 5--Claim that your candidacy transcends the problem.

Stage 6--Be politically expedient.

We've seen this before. The clearest example is Rev. Wright., but the stages appear whenever there is a contreversy. Trinity-Flegr and the flagpin are examples of problems that have cycled through all six stages. Ayers and Rezko seem stuck in stages two and three.

The best part is that his chin sticks out more and more until he gets to stage five. I thought he was trying to sniff something at today's press conference.

Two questions:

1. How long until the country wide scandal reaches stage six?

2. And this is HBO's first executive decision as nominee?.....

Time to drill in ANWR

2008-06-09T20:05:00.000-07:00

McCain would do well to reverse his decision on ANWR. With gas prices making new records--he needs extra protection as the "incumbent"

Coming out in favour of the gas tax holiday helps--but he needs more.

The spin can be that the can develop it in an environmentally friendly way. Conversations with Sarah Palin--governor of Alaska--changed his mind.

Conservatives are clamouring for this and to them it is a no-brainer. It would be nice to throw them a bone. There's a growing movement for "drill here drill now"

Anything to get us off foreign sources of oil is a winner. Including domestic drilling in the 'Manhattan Project' helps with our economy (more efficient use of resources) and foreign policy (less need for mid-East incursions)

The hard line conservatives will be the only ones to be upset and their cries will be drowned out by middle America gasping in relief. Oregon is lost anyway.

Palin video

2008-06-09T11:15:00.000-07:00

New Sarah Palin web ad

2008-06-09T11:04:00.000-07:00

JUNE 8, 2008
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
believe@palinforvp.com

PalinforVP.com Hosts Conference Call to Launch YouTube Ad
(YouTube)

www.PalinforVP.com – We are pleased to announce the launch of a new marketing campaign to promote Governor Sarah Palin as the 2008 Vice Presidential nominee for the Republican Party. This campaign kicks off with the release of a new ad “Sarah Palin – Perspective”. The ad highlights Sarah Palin’s vision and leadership in these historic and perilous times.

VIEW THE NEW AD HERE: [YouTube]; [PalinforVP .com]

PalinforVP.com founder Kristofer Lorelli, and “Draft Sarah Palin for Vice President” movement founder Adam Brickley (palinforvp.net) will be hosting a conference call on Friday, June 13th to discuss the ad and the further expansion of the marketing campaign to promote Governor Sarah Palin for the 2008 Vice Presidential nominee of the Republican Party.

PalinforVP Conference Call

When: Friday, June 13th, 3:30 p.m. EST

RSVP: believe@PalinforVP.com

OFFER HBO UNREASONABLE TERMS ON TOWN HALL COMMITTMENT

2008-06-08T22:20:00.000-07:00

The campaign should push Obama to commit to doing a town hall every week to be moderated by FOX News.

Following Bloomberg's eagerness to host the first one in NYC, I think the campaign should put HBO on the defensive.

Reasoning:

it gets media off breathless coverage of historic nature of Obama's nomination
it puts McCain in his best format and exploits one of Obama's worst weaknesses (relating to voters)
it ties up HBO in prep time and on stage when he could otherwise be using his cult of personality on the campaign trail
it will take little prep time for McCain as he is so used to them
it puts immense pressure on HBO b/c by agreeing to less of what McCain wants (make sure he does) he's undercutting his whole platform of transparency, openness and change--it feeds into the notion that HBO gives a good speech but..he's really all show
it's cost effective because McCain will get maximum coverage for minimal outlay

I don't think the McCain campaign can push this too hard

Suggestions for 'Citizens for McCain' page

2008-06-07T15:22:00.000-07:00

A few tips for the Citizens for McCain site:
-post a link to the story on Morris Udall--it's touching and I didn't know it before, It underlines just how much bi-partisanship is in his DNA as compare to HBO. I think this story could be really helpful in the fall.
-link to issues that may appeal to diaffected Hillary voters--climate change, stem cell rsearch, how much he hates war, how he wants to keep us safe
-make a list of his bi-partisan accomplshments
-link as much as possible to possible photos of and articles on governors who are young, minorities and female who may just be picked for VP especially Jindal, Palin and Pawlenty
-beef up thr Women for McCain page and link to it
-consider having a second blog for this page

Why I like Hillary

2008-06-06T18:48:00.000-07:00

I started this campaign being somewhat indifferent to Hillary Clinton. I never understood people's dislike for her, and any negative associations were more than balanced by the strong belief I have that it is past time for a female to occupy the oval office.

As a loyal McCainiac (if somewhat surreptitious), after Florida (and McCain's virtual lock) I began blogging for Hillary. My reasoning was she would make the ideal candidate for McCain (due to the right's pent up animosity towards her and because she would let him be more of the maverick reformer personality than Obama would.

Also, I was becoming concerned about Obama's political assets. His fundraising power, appeal to new voters, and general star power are formidable.

After Ohio and the Florida re-vote he shied away from, I began to see Hillary's electoral appeal. I also saw her as, frankly, more suited to be President. Reverend Wright and the other scandals revealed a vulnerability in HBO (my shorthand for Obama--it's his monogram scrambled and he's all show) that I didn't see before.

This coincided with Obama faltering and Hillary hitting her stride in the final weeks. It also coincided with the 'never surrender' pitch which struck me as gutsy and just plain admirable.

All this has left me whining (in the voice of the pizza boy from 'Something About Mary')

I LOVE HER MEHHN!

Ever since the 'soap commercial' came out in Iowa I've always had a thing for her soft side.

Mark Salter needs an editor

2008-06-05T00:23:00.000-07:00

McCain's speech last night:was painful to watch. I blame his communications team and especially his speech writer Mark Salter. The speech was just way too wordy and poorly constructed.

Future speeches need to be written with an eye to how it will sound as McCain speaks. Salter's eloquence is great on paper, but we are now in the era of Youtube. Shorten the sentence down--try to limit subordinate clauses and cut down on unnecessary words (there are just way too many adverbs).

As well, finish on the strongest part of the sentence--wait for the applause--and move on.

Will try to demonstrate with this sample paragraph. Instead of this:

I disagreed strongly with the Bush administration's mismanagement of the war in Iraq. I called for the change in strategy that is now, at last, succeeding where the previous strategy had failed miserably. I was criticized for doing so by Republicans. I was criticized by Democrats. I was criticized by the press. But I don't answer to them. I answer to you. And I would be ashamed to admit I knew what had to be done in Iraq to spare us from a defeat that would endanger us for years, but I kept quiet because it was too politically hard for me to do. No ambition is more important to me than the security of the country I have defended all my adult life.

Do this:

For years I voiced my disagreement with the mishandling of Iraq. I called for a larger initial invasion force. I called for accountability after Abu Ghreib. I stood up to Rumsfeld when he offered a rosy picture of the war. And I led Capitol Hill in embracing Petraeus's surge. This was politically risky to do. It was also the right thing to do. And now it's success is undeniable

Some other tips for the communications team:

Mention the audience more (i.e. That's the right kind of change, Louisiana) He is speaking to the crowd, not the TVs. Its not good enough to mention that he's coming to them from New Orleans.

When he looks directly (below the teleprompter) at the audience and smiles its like he's made eye contacti--it's good--do more of it. When he looks directly at the monitor and smiles his face crinkles up and he looks old--do less of it

Tone his smiles down some--he is not that mean that he needs to look super-friendly all the time. It's awkward. Also no giggles please

At the same time don't say 'That's not change we can beleive in'----it looks petty because belief is subjective. Obama would win that argument. Also Obama deserves respect. "That's not the right kind of change" is a lot better.

A good template would be:

Sen Obama says he would like to change xxx
Explain it
Why it's bad for America

The right kind of change....
Explain it (with reference to 2013)
Why it's good for America

The teleprompter. I go back to the viewpoint that it is better to have just two. If he practices standing with shoulders at 45 degrees to the camera--speaking left for 45 s---swivel 90 degrees--speaking right for 45 s I think he can do it--especially if you cut down on the verbiage. I have to re-read some of the sentences three times to get their meaning. No wonder he feels he's got to cling to the familiar.

I think it might be time for Marc Salter to accept the help of a heavy handed editor when he writes the speeches.

New top 5 for VP

2008-06-03T16:50:00.001-07:00

Colin Powell is like 71 so he fell off the list. The base doesn't like him. Had to pick a new name and rejig the list at the same time.

5. Carly Fiorina former CEO of HP. She is classically conservative and a fresh face. Her tenure at HP was troublesome but can be spun easily. Problems with her golden parachute from HP though.

4. Rob Portman--snoozer pick but looks good politically.

3. Condi Rice--links to Bush/Iraq, mediocre run at state, never run as a pol, and politically doesn't cover McCain's weaknesses--these are all reasons she has fallen one spot. I'm still pulling for her.

2. Tim Pawenty--Looks outstanding with many strengths and no weaknesses. Fresh face and wouldn't be surprised if it was him.

1. Sarah Palin--She has a fresher face and would turn the nation on fire. Caveat is 'can she handle commander in chief' questions and I think she can.

McCain needs to announce next week.

Apologies for ranting

2008-06-02T21:31:00.000-07:00

Well I would like to apologize to friends, family, and pretty much everyone on both the left and the right. I can get pretty political at times and often veer into territory that may offend some. That is not who I am, was, or want to be. I am independent dude! I am going to try to moderate my political life and commentary from now on.

Two recent examples come to mind. In a recent blog post I railed against 'the right wing crazies' keeping McCain down While I am certainly not anti-gay and am very much pro-woman--I have had my differences with the far right of the Republican party in large part because they have issues with my man. Though I once called myself a Republican, (a position which independent dude has long since abandoned) it is not right to dismiss them as 'crazies' I have several friends on the right, and I continue to value their friendship. I will try to moderate my language.

Similarly, I had a conversation a few weeks ago with a friend about the value of Canada's role in Afghanistan. Independent dude is independent about a great many things, but on foreign poliiicy he is hawkish. The conversation got more heated than it should. I'm not sure a whole lot was gained other than our blood pressures rising a bit. I will try to keep things in better perspective.

I'm sure there are 100 other examples where I've offended without even knowing it. Again, I'm sorry and I'll try to do better.

Top ten VP picks--fast forwarded

2008-06-01T20:57:00.000-07:00

I am speeding this up cause I really think the next two weeks are an opportune time for McCain to make his pick. A pick now will cut off all the glory and media attention HBO will get from wrapping up the nomination on Wednesday. It would be a signal that 'OK-time to take the focus off the Dems now-it's time to focus on the choice ahead.' This is especially true if he chooses one of the top three picks (I call them 'hit it out of the park' picks)

My first pick though is the last of my 'also-ran' picks.

#6 Mark Sanford--The current govenor of SC is a strong fiscal conservative, a warrior against pork and every bit as much a maverick as McCain (Maybe not quite as much) But he is young and good with the photo0-op thing (bringing pigs to the legislature) But he doesn't help with any states or areas--McCain is favoured in the south anyway. Also, he wrote a letter in early January urging SC not to vote Obama and it could be construed as racially charged. The first rule in choosing a VP is that you do no harm to yourself.

The next two are my 'great but a tad boring' picks

#5 Rob Portman--The former congressman from Ohio is young, helps in a key swing state and brings needed economic clout to the ticket. As a former trade representative he can defend the free-trade agreements which Obama opposes and which are especially important in the key swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. As former director of the Management andBudget office, he can defend McCain against being tied to the Bush econmic policies. He's got to know the impact of the tax cuts and spending increases intimately. Finally, he is a friend of Bush and W's 'pick' (unofficially) for McCain's VP---these ties would help with fundraising.

#4 Tim Pawlenty--The two term governor of MN is young, folksy, and competent. I think MN may be a lost cause, but their media market goes into WI and IA. Although he is as green as McCain he is also big on biofuels including ethanol--this will help assuage Iowans upset over McCain's dislike of ethanol. Pawlenty's hockey background can't hurt in Michigan after the Red Wings take the cup. He responded to the MN bridge collapse in a way that sets up a good contrast with how Bush handled Katrina. The base likes him, and his tough stance on immigration should counter McCain's. But it is his folksy good humour and way of relating to the 'Sam's Club Republicans' which sets him apart.

The top three are my 'hit it out of the park' picks. I think McCain needs to do this to counter Obamamania.

#3 Colin Powell--He is one of my oldest picks (mid sixties?) and probably is a bit too liberal for the base. But he is just so darned electable! He is wildly popular with some Republicans, all independents and many Democrats. Although he ultimately sided with the President, he was one of the most cautious voices on going to war. 'The reluctant warrior'--and going in with overwhelming force are two Powell qualities McCain needs to be associated with.

#2 Condi Rice--Along with Powell, her ethnicity drives the race wedge deep into the Dems. Her race is especially an advantage as she is very much opposed to Affirmative Action. Her gender also drives that sore point home to te Dems. She is well schooled in international affairs obviously, and is ready to be commander in chief. As0 a preacher's daughter-the base will embrace her. Her one faux pas of being 'slightly pro-choice' can be finessed. Her other positions are unknown and unburdened by previous ststements. She will be tied to the Bush administration but that will happen anyway and McCain doesn't shy away from being tied to Iraq.

#1 Sarah Palin---See my top ten list earlier in this blog. She is a young, beautiful fresh face. The Alaska govenor is a mother of five, a feminist, and yet conservative. She is perfect for driving in the gender wedge and the media won't be able to get enough of her. America will be as thirsty for Palin's change as they are for Obama's. Many of her initiatives on ethics and energy dovetail with McCain's.

The only knock on her is that she only has a year and a half experience as governor (prior to this she was mayor of a borough for 8 yrs)--this is especially critical for a potential commander in chief. In her defense I can say she is no shrinking violet--she has taken on ethics reform and intimidating political opponents with aplomb. Her interviews indicate that she takes a back seat to no one. Her oldest son just left for Iraq.

I would say to the VP Search people that if she can handle herself in debates and seems confident enough to assess any conditional questions by listening to the SecDef and Secretary of State then it should be ok. After the American people see her speaking enough times they will be comfortable with it. Look at Obama! And her inexperience turns the question back on the Dems. By what standard does HBO question someone's experience when he has little more?

Not a fan of Marc Nuttle

2008-06-01T20:06:00.000-07:00

Just finished watching 'The Strategy Room' on Fox and was appalled at the performance of the Republican operatives. Brett Baier hosted Marc Nuttle--a former Reagan advisor; and Margaret Hoover--a former Bush aide; and two Dems. When it got to picking winners and losers for the week I wasn't terribly surprised when Bob Beckel (who I really like and is always funny) called McCain a loser for saying troop levels in Iraq were down to their pre-surge level. I was surprised neither Republican defended McCain.

But then Kirsten Powers, another democrat who I really like, (she is damn hot) said if these gaffes keep up it fits into the ageism narrative. I was shocked that the Republicans kept quiet. But then Baier came to the rescue and gave Nuttle a softball question:'Is the gaffe an instance of ageism and could this hurt McCain?' 'Okay, here we go' I thought.

I was stunned when Nutter wouldn't respond but gave an answer about how the candidates need to focus on the economy. Huh? I'm no political operative but let me try to suggest what a McCain supporter might have said.

McCain left out one word--moving. America is moving to troop levels we had pre-surge. The surge has been incredibly successful and some of the troops are already home. The rest will follow shortly. And as for gaffes--how 'bout America having 57 states? Or mixing up cities in Iowa and South Dakota last week? These mistakes don't get attention because the media glosses over them. My point is that everyone slips up a bit regardless of age.

Nuttle also said Trinity is not a big deal for Obama and represents the same kind of trouble Scott McLellan is for Bush? WHAT? Even Powers disagreed with that. I'm pretty sure this Nuttle guy is a far-right nut job. He put Romnney's name out there for VP so I guess case closed.

I don't think he should ever be on a panel for McCain again.

I can't believe I used to call myself a Republican.

Top ten VP picks---#7

2008-06-01T13:55:00.000-07:00

Charlie Crist--He sealed FL for McCain in the primary season and perhaps deserves an IOU. He definitely provides a youthful contrast and is a competent, conservative, popular governor of a big swing state. He would lock up the FL vote. The problem is that McCain problably wins it on his own and not sure what else Crist brings. Unfortunately rumours that he is homosexual and his single status may hurt his chances.

Top ten VP picks # 8

2008-05-31T22:15:00.000-07:00

Mitt Romney--McCain hates Romney and I am no fan--but he makes all the sense in the world. The base got behind him (more or less) and they pretty much buy his new-found social conservatism to go with his legitimate economic conservatism. Romney's forte is economics and his background in the private sector may be just what a Washington insider needs to balance the ticket. But perhaps Romney's biggest draw is his tie to Michigan, where his name might help carry a state McCain has a fighting chance of stealing from the Dems. Romney's Mormon roots may also be helpful in Colorado and Nevada.

However, the Mormon ties cut both ways. There are evangelicals who will stay home if he is on the ticket, and even though they might be concentrated in the South where McCain should win, the FLDS scandal hurts his chances more broadly. Another negative is that Romney got typecast as being inauthentic and being unable to connect with the little guy==it is not helpful when you want to stick the elitist tag on your opponent. But I think his biggest drawback is that he got typecast as a flip=flopper during the primaries--this would undercut the'Straight Talk Express' and everything McCain stands for.

Michael Pfleger: America Will Pay For Raping Blacks

2008-05-30T20:36:00.001-07:00

This is incredible--please do not watch this if you're easily shocked. I'm still in shock

Top ten VP picks #9

2008-05-30T08:31:00.000-07:00

Mike Huckabee--Great sense of humour, folksy, relates well to the "bitter" folk. He is the opposite of an elite. At the same time he would be a great attack dog--and would stick a knife into Obama while telling a joke. He plays to economic populism, and while a third of the base distrusts him for this reason, it fits the national mood.

Another third of the base distrusts him due to his utter lack of national security experience.

But my biggest problem with Huckabee is his die-hard social conservatism. He is just a bit nuts. And while he is a rock-star for a third of the base and might help bring out the coalition that put Bush over the top--I just can't get past it. It's like Jon Stewart said, "You can be smiling and laughing and cheering and waving your sign for hours and then he says something about gay rights and you're like '...............ok.....maybe i'll just put my sign down....move over to the corner...slink out the door nice and quiet...'"

Top ten VP picks for McCain

2008-05-29T09:28:00.000-07:00

After thinking about this non-stop for five months (almost literally) I have put together this top ten list. (I am a sometimes fan of David Letterman).

There are a few names you might expect to see but are not here. The crazies in the base have dictated that pro-choice pols need not apply--thus Ridge, Lieberman, and Bloomberg are out. AA candidates with not much else going for them but skin colour are too tacky for McCain--hence Steele, Watts, and Blackwell are out--but wait for #4 and #1! Bobby Jindal is too young and everyone over 60 is too old.

I'll do one per day in reverse order and start with #10 today. Democratic version coming soon!

10. Hayley Barbour--The former RNC chair and present day governor in MS may be slightly in violation of my 'no one over 60' rule. In any case I don't much like him. The base loves him and he solidifies the south but I think McCain doesn't need too much help there. The biggest problem is that his backroom ties and demeanor suggest that he is a typical GOP dude. Angry, white, and older. The 'grumpy old man ticket' won't do well with independents.

Top 10 reasons to vote for Sarah Palin as McCain's VP

2008-05-20T13:08:00.000-07:00

10. She is a woman. The other side has huge excitement, understandably, about sending the first woman or the first African American, or possibly both-to the Whitehouse. Nominating two old white men is deadly.

9. She is a woman. This will help with female voters, who comprise a majority of the electorate on both sides. In an election about change--we can't be seen as the party of the status quo--especially among women. Some may want to vote McCain, but they don't want to miss a chance (and who knows when it will come again?) to shatter a glass ceiling--we can't lose their vote.

8. She is a woman. And it is about time.

7. She is fiscally conservative and cut taxes as a two-term mayor in the largest borough of Anchorage. It is now one of Alaska's fastest growing cities.

6. She helps McCain with social conservatives. She is pro-life and a member of Feminists for Life. She's also very pro 2nd amendment--lifelong member of the NRA. She has a picture on her web-site bagging a deer!

5. She has a lot of experience with energy issues. At a time when oil is running over $100/ a barrel and everyone wants to get off foreign oil this will be an asset.

4. She is young. An attractive mother in her early forties balances the 'grumpy old man' McCain can sometimes be/be portrayed as.

3. Much of her political life has been centred on ethics issues/legislation. This fits well with McCain's rants about 'the bridge to nowhere' and the corruption of Abramoff and how we need to change etc. (see pt 9)

2. She is for drilling in ANWR. This plays with conservatives. She is against global warming. This plays with the rest of humanity.

1. For all her executive experience (another plus for a Senator) and all the boards she has sat on and chairs she has held (e.g. human rights--think Guantanamo Bay, think waterboarding) nd though she is no shrinking violet--she may be criticized because of her youth and inexperience. This negative can be turned into a positive, however, by throwing it right back into Barack Obama's face. If it is claimed she's not ready to take over the presidency, then by what standard does he claim to be experienced enough to be commander-in chief on day one?

Vote at cq.com

Pre-conditions flip-flop for HBO?

2008-05-16T16:59:00.000-07:00

It seems Barrack was for 'no pre-conditions' before he was against them. McCain just needs a shot of Obambi wind-surfing now.

Help Sarah Palin in the final four!

2008-05-16T09:51:00.000-07:00

Sarah Palin is in the final four!!! She faces Rob Portman in the semi-final.
Plwase co to CQ's VP Madness site and help her out. We need a woman on the ticket!